Excessive restraint in waging war is built on the hubris of believing victory is inevitable. Israel needs to fight its war against Hamas like it could lose the war.
Yes, Israel could lose the war against Hamas despite its far greater military power:
Most discussions about the war in Gaza assume that, in the end, Israel will win. The stakes are so high for Israel, and Israel’s edge over Hamas is so large, that any outcome other than victory is unthinkable. The only questions are in what timeframe and at what cost.
And yet it is quite possible that the war in Gaza will be the first war in Israel’s history that the army has fought and lost. That loss would be catastrophic for Israel and deeply damaging to the United States. Precisely because of that, it must be considered.
But it is funny how so many assume Russia can't possibly lose to Ukraine with its far smaller margin of superiority in raw economic and population power. Although I disagree with the author's claim that we lost in Iraq (and in the related eastern Syria region which screens Iraq), although we could clearly still lose; and don't rule out we might reclaim victory in Afghanistan.
But back to the Last Hamas War. I'm not ready to endorse all the ideas regarding the war and post-war,
although creating a Palestinian partner worthy of being a true negotiating partner is something I agree with.
To guard against losing the war I think Israel should fight faster, not slower, which reflects false compassion about civilian casualties in war and risks handing Hamas victory.
When you have the edge, don't give your enemy that most precious battlefield resource of all--time.
UPDATE: Hamas wants a permanent war all around Israel's borders, according to Hamas. Which shows the danger of ceasefires (or "pauses") that give Hamas time to reload. And gives Hamas time to mobilize additional allies all around Israel's borders.
Tick tock, Israel.
UPDATE: Hezbollah seeks to attack Israel without being an obvious target for retaliation:
Federal investigators say they have uncovered a scheme allegedly involving the recruitment of Brazilian citizens by Hezbollah to orchestrate assaults against the Brazilian Jewish community.
That couldn't happen here, right? I mean, who would possibly shelter terrorists here?
Also, the Usual Suspect has his fingerprints all over Hezbollah's Latin America network. The link to the article about that former American president killing Project Cassandra to roll up the network is still good. Ah, Smart Diplomacy.®!
UPDATE: Israel continues to carefully fight its way into Gaza City.
UPDATE: Per ISW, note that Hezbollah isn't using its vast rocket arsenal that would require Israel to use its Iron Dome defenses:
[Hezbollah] launched three one-way drones in two attacks and conducted six anti-tank guided missile attacks targeting Israeli forces and civilians.
So far, Hezbollah isn't willing to risk Israel's obvious necessary response to Hezbollah rocket barrages.
How long can Hezbollah merely pretend to fight Israel? Tick tock.
UPDATE: It seems like America wants a two-state solution with Fatah West Bank Palestinians controlling Gaza, too; while Israel is insisting that it exercise control to de-Hamasify Gaza.
I don't think Israel can win without rebuilding a hate-free Gaza. But could America's objective be achieved with a virtual Pal-E-stine state?
UPDATE: As long as Hezbollah is only carrying out Solidarity Theater, Israel can afford to fight Hezbollah this way:
Israeli fighter jets pounded Hezbollah hideouts in southern Lebanon with air strikes on Sunday after an incoming anti-tank missile wounded Israeli civilians near the border, the army said.
UPDATE: Israel has pieced together "Hamas’s broader plan, one that analysts say was intended not to just kill and capture Israelis, but to spark a conflagration that would sweep the region and lead to a wider conflict."
This fits earlier claims that Hamas wanted endless war around Israel's borders. Arab states have to consider whether Hamas will include those Arab neighbors as targets--pretending to be Israeli attackers--in their next big plan to start a regional war. Given that Hamas hid their plans from Hezbollah and Iran, according to the article, this should be a major Arab worry.
How even more death and destruction benefits Palestinians remains unclear.
Although I'm skeptical that Hamas giving their terrorist invaders several days of food is evidence that the Hamas leadership expected the attackers to drive deeper into Israel for even more slaughter and rape.
Even fanatics probably don't want to be told that extra food is a waste of money considering their likely early demise.
Even the article says Hamas was surprised by the level of their success. So I'm still hesitant about accepting that Hamas expected and welcomed the scale of Israel's determination to wipe out Hamas.
The clashes suggest that Hamas’s authoritarian rule is beginning to crumble and that locals hold it at least partly to blame for the humanitarian crisis brought about by the Israeli invasion.
The signs of mounting dissent were revealed by Gazans who spoke to the Associated Press news agency.
The problems Hamas is facing doesn't require Gazans to love Israel:
The anger at Hamas does not imply sympathy for Israel – merely that Gazans feel Hamas has played into their enemies’ hands.
So how's that "deep plan" by Hamas to sacrifice Palestinians working out if Gazans think Israel made the deep plan?
UPDATE: An update on what Israel thought it knew on October 6th.
UPDATE: I had heard the Hamas assault that didn't flee with hostages was ultimately killed off: "About 1,500 Hamas terrorists were killed by Israelis, and their bodies, phones and weapons were exploited as an intelligence bonanza. Additional insights came from a handful of men who were captured alive and interrogated."
UPDATE: Another ISW update on the war.
UPDATE: I've noted that humanitarian aid is essentially the Hamas logistics arm. I've warned about that issue.
UPDATE: Good, if true:
Iran’s supreme leader told the head of Hamas in a face-to-face meeting in Tehran that his country would not enter the war with Israel and accused the terror group of not giving any prior warning of the Oct 7 attacks.
And I did wonder if Hamas took Iran by surprise with the attack, notwithstanding Iran's support for Hamas. Hezbollah claims to have been surprised by the attack, too.
Israel's big response may have squelched any thoughts by Iran and Hezbollah to jump to the front of the Hamas October 7th parade.
UPDATE: I've urged caution in mega-cities by trying to capture only the portions of the city that are necessary for the purpose of the campaign. Gaza City is hardly a mega-city, but for tiny Israel it really is. Note that thus far Israel has only touched the outer fringes of Gaza City:
Ideally, Israel doesn't need to take much more. But if it needs, to perhaps Israel can weaken Hamas and its allies inside that perimeter to make a sweep inward a mopping up operation. Given time, of course.
UPDATE: Israel has kept its troop casualties down by moving slowly into Gaza City:
As a result, the war isn’t even halfway done; only the northern tunnels have been assailed, with rockets ... still being assembled and launched daily from the southern ones.
But the clock rolls on, risking American pressure to end the war.
But if Israel doesn't plan to go into southern Gaza, it could offer a ceasefire to get Hamas to release all the hostages, no? Hamas might believe it needs a long pause to prepare for Israel going south and so releasing the hostages is worth it. Then the long-term Israeli plan to wage a gray zone war against Hamas leaders in the south and globally could begin. And building a New Palestine in the evacuation zone to build actual Palestinian peace partners.
NOTE: The image was made from DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
