Is the Russian Wagner Mutiny played out in its effects yet?
In many ways--at least how it turned out--it is accurate to say the Wagner Insurrection was a military mutiny:
Prigozhin's actions fit the definition of a mutiny almost perfectly, military experts say. In his televised statement, Putin himself described what was happening as a mutiny, or a rebellion.
In other words, though Prigozhin threw down the biggest gauntlet Putin had faced since catapulting to prominence in 1999, it's not clear Prigozhin wanted to oust the Russian leader. However, he may have been seeking the heads of other top officials: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the country's top military officer, General Valery Gerasimov.
The stated purpose of the Wagner mutiny was to end the pointless slaughter of Russian soldiers ordered by the government. That Prigozhin willingly carried out those orders for so long to batter his way through Bakhmut with his prison-recruited cannon fodder was to be ignored, I suppose.
I can't rule out that this truly was intended by Prigozhin as a coup:
Putin called the failed Wagner Group march on Moscow treason. Yet many senior Russian generals quietly agreed with Prigozhin and some were secretly in touch with him and ready to openly back Wagner Group forces against Putin, but only if Prigozhin marched into Moscow.
But as it ended, it looks like a mutiny.
In World War I both French and Russian troops mutinied in response to their heavy casualties, too. The Russian example led to the collapse of the state.
The French example, however, was kept quiet and led to the French being much more careful using their troops to get them to fight again. Albeit with possible fatal repercussions in 1940.
I've hoped we'd see a mutiny in Russia's own ground forces in response to their own casualties. I didn't expect Wagner to mutiny, even if I wondered if it would be part of general chaos.
General troop mutiny was not triggered by the Wagner Mutiny. But will the apparent lack of punishment for Wagner troops encourage Russian army, paratrooper, or other security force troops in Ukraine to mutiny, too? I mean, I was wrong about Putin's sensitivity to casualties. Although to be fair, Putin started the war expecting it to be a short and glorious near-parade.
But maybe the troops are reaching their limit. Escaping to Belarus might be looking like a pretty good deal right now.
Anyway, NATO wants to figure out what, if any, weaknesses this reveals about Putin.
UPDATE: Oh, FFS. The mutiny was not a Putin ploy to reveal traitors: "The coup was staged, and completely faked false flag operation." In what alternate world would Putin need to do that to fin and punish traitors? It isn't like he needs proof! And he'd needlessly tarnish his image of power to do something he doesn't need to do?
As for the "proof" that Putin didn't send ground forces to stop Wagner's march? Did you not notice that the security forces Wagner ran into stood aside or surrendered? Putin couldn't risk adding troops to Prigozhin's army. That's why only aircraft were sent. Please note in regard to the reliability issue that Putin is sending elite Spetsnaz to secure the Belgorod border because even before the Wagner Revolt the security forces sent to stop anti-Putin Russians from raiding Russia were unreliable against that tiny threat.
God. I felt brain cells committing suicide reading that ploy article. Get back to me when there is evidence and not just fanciful motivations ascribed to events with more sensible explanations.
UPDATE: Interesting:
The reported reorganization of Russian internal security organs suggests that the Kremlin has not yet concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threats of future armed rebellions following the Wagner Group’s June 23-24 rebellion.
NOTE: The image was created with DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR coverage of the Winter War of 2022 continues here.
