So how is Libya going 12 years after America helped overthrow the Libyan government but stayed out to let locals sort out their differences without a "destabilizing" American presence?
Libya remains divided and deadlocked. There are two main factions, one in the east based in Tobruk and another in Tripoli, in the west. The UN backs the Tripoli faction, as do local Islamic militias and Turkish troops and mercenaries. The eastern faction controls most of the oil and export ports. The Russian Wagner Group mercenaries are based in the east but now see themselves as peacekeepers and work with the Turks to maintain a ceasefire. This allows Russian oil firms to operate in Libya and do work for the Libyan national oil company. Both factions support national elections to unite the country but neither faction trusts the others enough to proceed with elections. Russia and the Turks refuse to withdraw their troops from Libya until they receive guarantees that their interests in Libya are respected.
Via Wagner forces, Russia has influence in Libya:
While the US ponders whether to reopen its embassy in Libya, Vladimir Putin’s new ambassador is preparing to take up his post in the capital, extending Russian influence across an oil-producing nation on the doorstep of Europe.
It's a source of money, arms diversions, and migrants to aim at Europe.
Also, "But the US is at a disadvantage in Libya, where it has no troops and no diplomatic presence."
Remember when our drive-by intervention that killed Khadaffi was held up as big-brained Smart Diplomacy®, allowing locals to resolve their own problems post-dictator without America's "destabilizing" influence?
By simply overthrowing the dictator of Libya but keeping our troops out of the occupation business, locals would work out their differences because they'd be unable to rely on us to do it for them; our friends wouldn't be "tainted" by our association with them; and jihadis would have no reason to flock to Libya.
America "learned" from Iraq that we shouldn't try to overthrow Assad lest worse things happen. In Libya we tried the alternative to doing nothing or conquest. We just bombed the dictator's forces until locals could take over.
Too many here think America simply makes things worse. In reality, other people are perfectly capable of effing things up without us. And of the three test cases of Iraq, Syria, and Libya, Iraq has the best outcome so far--if we prevent Iraq War 3.0 by stopping Iran and jihadis. And let's not even go into Afghanistan where our "own goal" put the Taliban back in power, demonstrating that our imperfect local ally government was absolutely superior.
UPDATE: Is the door open for Russia to push migrants to Europe or is Tunisia just bargaining for a better price? "Tunisia’s president said Monday that his country doesn’t want to be Europe's border guard or a land of resettlement for migrants rejected elsewhere.
NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E. Although I had to add an American flag in the background with the meme generator. Often what I think is a clear instruction just doesn't make it into a picture. I wasted a couple of my limited allotment trying to get it right.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
