We can't appease aggressive, horrible governments. And it is not sophisticated, wise policy to try.
No! America has not created a "Legion of Doom" of China, Russia, and Iran, that congeals together despite mutual resentments:
Despite these lingering resentments, however, the past year has taught all of these countries an important lesson: as much as they might have issues with each other, they have much bigger issues with the United States.Their "much bigger issues" are that America doesn't want these shrunken imperial states to bully or gobble up their neighbors who are our allies and friends! We have "issues" with Iran, Russia, and China because of who they threaten. Stop that little issue and we have nothing but normal non-security differences to iron out.
I mean, what is that author even talking about?
For U.S. policymakers, the question going forward will be to choose from a set of unsavory options. They can continue to implement a foreign policy that midwifes an anti-American coalition. They can prioritize containing China and soften their approach toward countries that pose a more proximate threat to the United States and its allies and partners. Or they can decide that China is the devil they know best and try to foster a new equilibrium in the Sino-American relationship.
Given the unsteady state of the world, repairing the Sino-American relationship is the option that offers the most promise.
China, Russia, and Iran are horrible states. To break up that grouping we'd have to offer horrible things to one or more of them. And that "flip" would be shallow and contingent on the West providing new sacrifices on a regular basis. Iran proved that doesn't work.
I would love to break up the "legion". Until Russia invaded and raped Ukraine, I hoped Russia was the weak link to "flip". What part of Russia's actions should be rewarded to split up this grouping? Indeed, my pre-war warning to Russia is coming true.
And FFS, how on Earth do we appease a China burning for revenge for a Century of Humiliation and determined to expand its borders? Who gets sacrificed alive on that altar of strategery that falsely promises to "repair" our relationship by feeding the beast?
Remember, too, that this grouping can't materially help each other during a war.
The most they can do is wage parallel wars. Which will draw together the rival
Legions of Hope in each region. If we support them.
America isn't "midwifing" an anti-American coalition. America is recognizing a growing alignment of horrible states that are anti-American, anti-European, anti-Arab, or anti-Asian. Why would we abandon some of those allies by appeasing their appetites?
That path--notwithstanding that author's focus on drawing China away from that loose coalition--will crumble the web of alliances we are building in Asia and ensure China can keep building up its military to pick off the weakest from the herd with few repercussions.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
