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Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Acceptable Collateral Damage

I await the proliferation of authors who argues that Ukraine should be honored to be sacrificed to the Russians' tender mercies for some greater good.

 

So, the West has to let Russia defeat Ukraine so [checks notes] China doesn't win? 

There’s a shrewd Chinese allegory that captures the essence of China’s thinking on this conflict: "As two tigers are fighting ferociously in the valley, a sage monkey is sitting on top of the mountain, looking down and waiting to see how it will end." 

The two tigers are Russia and the United States, both considered by China to be its top adversaries. China is the wise monkey patiently waiting as Moscow and Washington are eroding their respective combat power, fighting a proxy war over control of Ukraine.

What nonsense. While Russian combat power is eroding rapidly and Russia is being exposed as a paper tiger, American power is only taking a brief dip because of arms and ammo shipments to Ukraine. But that is temporary. America seems committed to increasing production capacity.

And the weapons shipped to Ukraine are less useful for an aero-naval war as any early period of a war with China would be. Further, Western weapons in general are getting a boost that should give future sage monkeys second thoughts about choosing war.

Oh, at some level the analyst has a point. But the only way out of the dilemma is abandoning Ukraine? Maybe Russia should be the one to get her message

And this gem from that analyst: 

On Wednesday, the Pentagon finally admitted what was clear to serious intelligence analysts from the start: Ukraine has no military path to victory against Russia.

The Pentagon also said Ukraine had no military path to avoiding being overrun by the Russian juggernaut in mere days. And to be precise, the Pentagon said the odds for Ukraine's victory going forward weren't high "anytime soon". Big difference. 

Never heard of the analyst. Have no need to hear from the analyst again. 

Not that the monstrous notion of abandoning Ukraine to Russia's tender mercies for some other "greater good" is new. I assume there will be a growing chorus that saving the planet from climate change requires the sacrifice of Ukraine. How dare we destroy the planet to save Ukraine, eh?

NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.