Please tell me that Putin and his leadership aren't as stupid as Putin makes them seem.
Putin's apparent nuclear threat is reinventing stupid:
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday once again drew international attention when he warned that if even one missile enters Russian territory, "hundreds" of warheads will respond.
The United States once thought it could reduce conventional military capabilities and rely on nuclear weapons. By pledging Massive Retaliation with nukes for any level of aggression, we assumed we could inexpensively deter aggressors.
The Korean War demonstrated that Massive Retaliation
was not credible for threats less than national destruction. We
realized that massed firing of nukes for any attack is not credible. But Russia has limited
options short of nukes:
Unfortunately for Russia, they will find that nuclear weapons aren't useful for defending their country. Threatening to use nuclear weapons is only credible in the face of national destruction. Certainly, a Chinese army marching on Moscow would lead Russia to unleash nuclear weapons to prevent that. And Russian nukes would deter China from using their own nukes on Russia.
But China isn't going to march on Moscow. Will Russia really provoke a general nuclear war with China if the Chinese take a chunk of territory in the Far East but go no further?
Nuclear weapons deter the worst case scenario. And nukes help keep war in the conventional sphere for a longer period of time.
But effective conventional forces are needed to defend Russian territorial integrity in fights short of national extinction.
If Russia responds to a single nuke by firing hundreds, many hundreds will land on Russia a half hour later. So nobody believes this kind of threat.
But I also don't believe the Russians are this stupid because they have a history of nuclear bluffs.
The main problem Putin faces is that Russia's conventional military is too weak to defend their huge border without nukes. Russia's bluster helped to conceal that conventional military weakness reality. The war in Ukraine exposed the reality.
The real problem for Russia is that if nuclear-armed enemies do believe this kind of threat, Russia guarantees that if an enemy decides to initiate nuclear attacks on Russia, hundreds will land on Russian territory in a first strike. And Russia doesn't just face America with that capability. Russia faces China with that kind of nuclear threat. And the Chinese know Russia considered a nuclear disarming strike on China many decades ago. Oops.
Chimps with nukes, the Russian are.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
