Does analysis about what China the country/empire might do neglect that the key is what the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will do in its own interests?
Will a ‘Peak’ China decide now is the time for war with America: Hal Brands and Michael Beckley have breaking news from 1832! Namely that it sometimes makes sense for the weak to pick a fight with the strong. No less an authority than Carl von Clausewitz affirms it. Suppose, postulates Clausewitz, a weaker contender “is in conflict with a much more powerful one and expects its position to grow weaker every year. If war is unavoidable, should it not make the most of its opportunities before its position gets still worse? In short, it should attack . . . .” [emphasis in original]
Maybe. Or maybe China goes small ball rather than risk it all against the world's strongest military power. If you want a short and glorious war you need a small target.
Still, do we know how the Chinese Communist Party judge things when the survival of the CCP monopoly on power is the highest objective? What might the CCP willingly sacrifice for that objective?
And if the CCP needs a victorious war against a major power, the CCP has an easier target than America and our allies.
Also, while the Thucydides Trap is raised in that article as a factor pushing war, I think China and America have a pressure valve that lessens the chance of war from that factor.
Still, I'd check ammo and double the guard. I have no idea what the CCP thinks is rational.
NOTE: War coverage continues here.
