I frequently read or hear that it is futile for America to help Taiwan resist China because China is so big and Taiwan is so small and so close. Question: Why do any small countries exist adjacent to any powerful country?
Taiwan is not doomed despite the tyranny of proximity and the disparity on power. Let's look at Finland, a tiny democracy adjacent to a massive autocracy.
Finland started out as part of the Russian Empire, after Russia took it from Sweden. After a century of living under Russian control, Finland achieved independence as a result of the Russian revolution of 1917.
Finland retained its independence despite the victory of the Soviets in the Russian civil war. The Russians even gave Finland territory in exchange for Finland abandoning some territorial claims.
But then Finland lost a lot of territory in their heroic defense against the USSR in the 1939-1940 Winter War. Yet the casualties Finland inflicted on the invaders saved them.
Finland temporarily retook territory fighting alongside the Germans in World War II. But retained independence after Germany was defeated.
Yet Finland was forced into a foreign policy of accommodating Soviet security concerns. Yet it advanced to be a modern Western-style democracy.
That submission ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, which allowed Finland to move closer to the West, with Finland joining NATO alongside its Swedish neighbor.
Finland's independence over the last century thus ran the gamut of compliant neighbor to war with that neighbor. All that without a 100-mile wide anti-tank ditch filled with water, which Taiwan has.
You could go around the planet and look at small powers adjacent to larger, stronger powers. Why aren't all those small states absorbed by the stronger neighboring power? Why didn't that continue until all small powers were absorbed? Clearly, it is possible for small powers to survive proximity to larger powers.
Taiwan is not doomed. Like Finland, Taiwan is next to a much stronger power that once owned it for a period of time. But Taiwan has a 100-mile strait between it and its enemy.
If the Taiwanese have the determination to resist China that the Finns showed fighting the Soviet Union, Taiwan can remain independent.
Sure, it might run a gamut of realities. From losing territory to retaking territory. From accommodating China and its power to joining an alliance to preserve its freedom. Heck, maybe Taiwan's threatening neighbor could collapse just as Finland's did in 1989-1991.
Even if Taiwan is currently as doomed as some claim, resistance is worth it. As the expression goes, perhaps the horse will learn to sing.
Taiwan is not doomed. Taiwan must fight as hard as Finland did. And Taiwan has the advantage of the Taiwan Strait and powerful friends willing to support Taiwan.
I reject the notion that China can't conquer Taiwan because amphibious operations are too difficult. I think it is possible for China to throw an army across the water barrier. But Taiwan needs to exploit those real difficulties by spending what it takes and fighting hard--including driving the invaders into the sea. Will Taiwan defend its independence and freedom?
NOTE: My most recent war coverage continues here.
