Mission, enemy, terrain, troops available, time, and civilian considerations (METT-TC) are all factors that weigh on Chinese military plans to conquer Taiwan. Terrain is just one of them. But terrain has to be defended. Terrain is a force multiplier and not a force replacement.
Thoughts on the geography of Taiwan impeding a Chinese invasion and conquest (via Instapundit). It is a good piece on Terrain as the Chinese factor in METT-TC for their plans. Do read it. The author makes many good points on terrain and typhoons complications for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Yet neither prevent an attacker from overcoming them.
What of China's Enemy? But Taiwan needs troops to hold the terrain, and
Taiwan's reserves are a hot mess. Further, does Taiwan have the ammunition to fight on? Even if it is just long enough for allied ammunition shipments to arrive? Will the Taiwanese fight hard or crumble in despair?
Further, just what is the Mission of the invasion? The conventional wisdom is that China must capture Taipei or it is defeated. As I observed in Military Review,
the Chinese don't need to conquer Taiwan to win their invasion. The PLA
just needs to get ashore and stay before a ceasefire is declared. In future years, the conquest can be completed with subversion or raw power.
If that is the case for the mission, Time is very different. China might not have enough time to capture Taipei before America and others can intervene in force. But if time means enough to establish a foothold and get a ceasefire, China might have more than enough.
And Chinese Troops available to complete the mission? China would need far fewer troops than analysts calculate if the mission is to get ashore and stay there rather than conquer the entire island nation before America can decisively intervene. China might gain the element of surprise because observers wouldn't see nearly enough force massing for the harder mission of complete conquest.
As for Civilian Considerations, China cares little for their own people. Have you seen how they treat their people during the pandemic that began in China? There is no such thing as civilian collateral damage if it promotes the mission. As for potential insurgency? Well, China will take the time. And the Chinese don't care about "hearts and minds" as a gentle persuasion exercise. Look at Tibet and Xinjiang for how ruthless and persistent the Chinese are. Heck, were I an evil CCP ruler, I'd forcibly relocate Taiwanese on a large scale to Xinjiang and Tibet, and replace them on Taiwan with mainland Han settlers.
A Chinese invasion could go either way if Taiwan fights hard and gets help. But if China is willing to endure the anticipated casualties, China can probably successfully begin the conquest of Taiwan, at least.
Still, I do hope that Taiwanese troops learn from Ukraine that resistance to a larger nuclear-armed enemy is not futile, especially with a 100-mile wide anti-tank ditch between them and the threat.
The Ardennes Forest is just one terrain feature that 1940 professionals thought was impenetrable to an attacking army. Let's not fall into the trap that the Taiwan Strait and Taiwanese mountains prevent China from defeating Taiwan.
NOTE: After publication I reordered the sentences in the second paragraph for clarity.
NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.
