The increased reliance on the Internet and the expansion of cyber skills across the world in civilian life means civilians can wage war anywhere. Nineteenth century freebooters once waged private warfare in Latin America. Where does this modern version end?
Private warfare is now a thing online (via Instapundit):
The developer of a popular open source package has been caught adding malicious code to it, leading to wiped files on computers located in Russia and Belarus.
I mentioned this sort of thing long ago:
And beyond a war against a recognized enemy, what happens if the old freebooting tradition of conducting independent foreign policies at odds with American interests arises? We have had citizens going off for adventure in Central America and even had an abortive Irish-American plan to invade British Canada.
What happens when members of our many ethnic communities decide to band together to seriously attack other countries' networks? If computer users can break a dam by messing with the computers that control them, how is it that different in effect from going off and planting a bomb to break the dam?
We recently had an example against a country with less ability to react against the threat in the real world. But a country can go kinetic in response to hacking.
And keep in mind that the attack on Russia and Belarus is cyber-carpet bombing that doesn't
distinguish between people in those countries who support the war or
oppose it. Our military takes great effort to avoid "collateral damage" when striking lawful targets. The modern version of the freebooter, the cyberbooter, may have undermined opposition to
Putin.
Even if targeted, will the targeted governments accept that the developer's country of origin isn't responsible? I think not:
So while cyber can have an effect, my old advice remains valid--when you Twitter a king, kill him:
In the past I've noted that we can't get so caught up in the mystique of cyber-warfare that we forget that a JDAM dropped on an office building filled with enemy hackers is probably a more straightforward way of dealing with their offensive efforts than equivalent hacking back at them.And don't think cyber attacks on the supply chain will avoid retaliation even if they seem like the perfect attack method (via Instapundit). If a country hurt by a severe cyber attack thinks their cyber operations to respond to enemy cyber operations are weak or judged ineffective in effects achieved, the cyber target will use kinetic means to retaliate.
And then the kinetics start exploding. Which we'll need luck to live through.
I believe JDAMs are the ultimate cyber weapon. War can start in cyber. From governments or civilians. It will end in the real world where governments and their arsenals exist.
NOTE: War coverage continues at this post.
