Will Belarus freedom advocates pry Belarus from Russia's grasp or provoke Russia into occupying Belarus with military force?
Russia is drawing an increasingly reliant Belarus into its grasp:
The growing unity between Moscow and Minsk isolates Belarus from countries in the West, resulting in increased dependence and commitment to Russia’s strategic goals.
Which means Belarus increasingly obeys orders from Moscow:
On October 7, Polish border troops reported being fired upon by their counterparts from Belarus. Though no one was hurt and the Belarusian soldiers were most likely firing blank ammunition, the incident is illustrative of the tension that has been building in that area since Moscow effectively assumed control over the government in Minsk to prop up Belarus’ authoritarian president, Aleksandr Lukashenko. ...
Ultimately, Belarus has more or less ceased to function as an independent entity.
Belarus once tried to play the West off against Russia to maintain independence. That Belarus would not be firing even blanks at the border. Or sending refugees and migrants to NATO as a weapon (back to the first article):
Tensions have also been rising on the border between the two countries as a surge of migrants has created a building humanitarian crisis simultaneously with the sensitive security situation. Migrants are largely heading toward Poland, as well as Latvia and Lithuania. Poland has accused Belarus of weaponizing migration against it, and accused Lukashenko himself of offering payments for migrants to move into the area.
Every step that Putin makes in drawing Belarus closer to Russia makes it harder for Lukashenko to appeal to the West to balance Russia. Yet Russia, barely strong enough to take Crimea and eastern Donbas from Ukraine, would have problems conquering Belarus just because of the sheer size. Unless Russia moves in to support a compliant government and security force.
As I've said, the Anschluss is basically done. Which is a problem for NATO states Poland and Lithuania, especially.
One day those incidents on NATO's frontier in Poland
may be carried out with Russian troops visible in the background. Putin already has the army made for that role.
But I'm at least grateful that the Russians will be on Poland's eastern border rather than massed at the Fulda Gap. And no, don't tell me NATO expansion caused Russian hostility. Russia's paranoia has no longitude limit.
Russia sure isn't acting like they are on the cusp of acting sane about true threats to Russian territory.
