Somebody will lose in Ukraine but do the Ukrainians want to win? And can the Russians win in the Donbas?
Seven years after Russia conquered Crimea and eastern Donbas from Ukraine, Ukraine has made little effort to build a better military or defense industry:
It is remarkable and stretching credibility that after seven years of war neither the Ukrainian military nor the defense industry has undergone any substantial or lasting reforms. Historically, during the two world wars of the early 20th century, fears of losing created powerful motivations on all sides to adopt changes and innovation in every aspect of defense. These wars drove the creation of new forces, such as the Special Air Service; innovations like the tank, long-range rockets and drones; and, of course, the nuclear bomb.
Well, it has also been 7 years since Russia has made a serious effort to attack Ukraine. So the incentive of total defeat is absent. Can we really persuade Ukraine to do better if they won't?
As I've said, if Ukraine remains just a smaller version of corrupt Russia, Ukraine won't be able to defeat Russia in battle. And that warning applies to the Ukrainian military and not just the economy. It is insane, as that first article states, to build "a mirror image of a 'small Soviet Army'[7] or a Russian copy".
Too much of Ukraine's military power is dominated by "Red" thinking which reduces its paper strength a great deal:
In the military, the system is still full of 'red commanders' at every level who punish those with NATO-leaning views.[14] It is, therefore, little surprise that 65 percent soldiers are leaving after their first contract.
Ukraine's military seems more geared to perpetuating its vast bureaucracy with pointless paperwork rather than generating combat power to defeat Russia. Good God, artillery ammunition remains in short supply! How is that possible after 7 years?
And America and NATO are little better in adapting to the needs to prepare Ukraine to fight and to support rapidly-changing supply needs to fight.
Ukraine can take some comfort that Russia can't swallow Ukraine whole and digest it. But Russia can still do harm to Ukraine if Russia is willing to endure the casualties. But as long as pro-Russian military leadership remains at the top in Ukraine, can Ukraine build a military capable of ejecting the Russians from Ukrainian territory and ending Russia's claim that Ukraine doesn't even exist?
That seems doubtful. But unless Ukraine does that to become a provider rather than a consumer of security, it will not be invited to join NATO. NATO is not a philanthropy which poor Ukraine can appeal to for help.
Still, all is not bleak for Ukraine. Crimea is firmly gripped by Russia. But the Donbas is another case even though Russia's subliminal war against Ukraine rages:
In eastern Ukraine (Donbas) the Russian-backed rebels escalated their violations of the July 2020 ceasefire agreement. Since March these violations were relatively minor, using machine-guns, automatic grenade launchers and mortars at Ukrainian troops. Today the Russian forces used heavy artillery and OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) monitors noted that more artillery and armored vehicles were being brought close to the ceasefire line, as if it were preparation for a major offensive.
Russia's local hand puppets are getting discouraged as the war drags on while the hand is nice and comfy. That is a problem for Putin:
More and more of the "rebel activity" in Donbas is carried out by Russians pretending to be Ukrainian rebels. The Russian government apparently believes it will ultimately win but does not have a clear idea of when or how. Threats to invade all of Ukraine are not practical because the current Russian military is tiny compared to that of the Soviet Union.
Ah, the glories of "hybrid warfare"! At least that Western craze has faded.
Still, until the residents of Russian-occupied Donbas get fed up with Russian rule, does Ukraine have an interest in liberating that territory and bringing all those pro-Russian voters back into Ukraine?
Nobody on either side seems to have any ability to win this war. Or any desire to do what it needs to do in order to win. Including America.
Do read all of the Jamestown Foundation depressing analysis. But not knowing doesn't make the problems disappear.
