Iraqi fear of America walking away, as it did in 2011, must be higher as Iraqi leaders watch America pull out of Afghanistan and damn the consequences.
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has frequently expressed his goal of imposing the government’s command over all armed forces, including the Shia militia umbrella organization, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). However, al-Khadimi is careful not to go too far in antagonizing the powerful militias and Iran. For their part, prominent militia leaders have been increasingly vocal in their criticism, and sometimes verbal attacks, on al-Kadhimi, who is a U.S.-backed moderate Shia leader. They accuse him of targeting the PMF to satisfy American pressure.
It's a battle for Iraq against Iran and a battle against Iran in Iraq.
America will need to work to insulate Iraqis from the worry that Afghanistan stokes about our willingness to help our Iraqi allies battle the Iranians. Iran is close and we are far. If Iraqi confidence in American support wavers, Iran gains an advantage.
Still, the effect of Americans leaving its Afghan allies--who are still killing jihadis every day rather than generating jihadis to kill us at home as the territory was before we toppled the Taliban government--probably pales in comparison to the strange love of the Iranian mullahs that Biden's people display. The Iraqis have to worry that they too will be thrown under the bus as Biden's people pursue the entirely futile Holy Grail of a grand deal with the Iranian mullahs.
Just who is looking like the strong horse in the Middle East these days?
