Run Away

The only question is who pays the price for America bugging out of Afghanistan.

Biden intends to pull all American troops out of Afghanistan by September 11, 2021:

While the Taliban has promised to renew attacks on U.S. and NATO personnel if foreign troops are not out by the deadline — and said in a statement it would not continue to participate in “any conference” about Afghanistan’s future until all “foreign forces” have departed — it is not clear whether the militants will follow through with the earlier threats given Biden’s plan for a phased withdrawal between now and September.

The administration doesn't think jihadis from Afghanistan will be a threat:

White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Wednesday dismissed concerns raised by top military officials and the CIA about President Biden's decision to withdraw all 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by September, maintaining that terror threats have "evolved," and military and national security strategy needs to be adjusted to focus on the threats as they stand in 2021.

Narrowly, that's a good point. Things are different in 2021 than in 2001.

But our lengthy presence in Afghanistan is one of the reasons the terror threats in 2021 are smaller than in 2001:

At the high-water mark in 2011, there were 100,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Today, there are only 2,500. This is not the taxing military commitment that the White House argues prevents us from dealing with growing challenges in Europe or Asia. In fact, since December our allied partners had actually committed more troops, roughly 7,000. And today’s train-and-assist mission is not the combat one the U.S. had during the height of its military involvement a decade ago. We believe Biden’s withdrawal of the remaining U.S. and allied troops is premature and will likely impede the ability of the Afghan government to control their own territory from once again becoming a base for international terrorist attacks – one of the primary reasons for the invasion of 2001. While some overplay the immediacy of the threat posed by terrorist groups taking root in an ungoverned Afghanistan, an ungovernable Afghanistan is a haven for groups such as ISIS and al Qaeda.

Our military anticipates continuing to help Afghanistan:

“We will look to continue funding key capabilities, such as the Afghan air force and Special Mission Wing,” he said. “And we will seek to continue paying salaries for Afghan security forces.”

There may also continue to be a U.S. counter-terrorism presence “in the region,” he added.

But how long will Congress fund these efforts when American troops are gone? Members of Congress can say they "think" support will continue. Ask South Vietnam about that. And will commuter counter-terrorism really work?

Without Americans helping Afghan forces kill jihadis, what will the threats look like in 2022? Or 2023?

I think that withdrawing is unwise. I know that is unpopular to say across the political spectrum. It's a sad ending to "the good war." But it risks returning Afghanistan into a terrorist haven. 

Jihadis will be able to celebrate three September 11ths. The one in 2001 here at home. The one in 2012 in Benghazi. And the one this year. I guess the new protocol will be to fly the white flag at half-staff on Patriots' Day. 

Will our local allies who we trained to fight our common jihadi enemies with our support be able to continue fighting without our support? 

And if not, will the jihadis try to follow us home to continue the war they have no interest in ending. 

UPDATE: Secretary of Defense Austin will oversee in Afghanistan what he knew was a mistake in Iraq in 2011 when he was the commander of American forces in Iraq.

UPDATE: Nobody wants to be on the ground after America leaves:

Discussions are underway among military planners with the NATO-led Resolute Support Mission in Kabul for a possible withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan as early as July 4, Germany’s Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

We're asking for defeat. Begging for it. And  if Afghanistan collapses because support dries up, giving future allies reason to wonder if it is safe to side with us.

UPDATE: Confidence in America's plan:

Pakistan, Iran, India, China and Central Asian nations all have different plans for handling another Taliban attempt to take over Afghanistan.

I'm sure our State Department is busy telling them not to worry their pretty little heads over that remote possibility.