NATO countries warned Russia not to blockade Ukraine's ports.
What are we seeing that would lead to this kind of warning?
Russian President Vladimir Putin is restricting access to a sea that is home to an important Ukrainian port city in an apparent bid to strengthen his military’s ability to threaten those areas, according to NATO officials and Ukrainian observers.
“This would be an unjustified move and part of a broader pattern of destabilizing behavior by Russia,” NATO spokeswoman Oana Lungescu said Friday. “We call on Russia to ensure free access to Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov and allow freedom of navigation.”
Russia has been messing with access to Ukrainian ports via the Kerch Strait that Russia now controls for a while now. Russia says the most recent limit--whether legal or not, I don't know--is temporary for military exercises.
There is certainly one way to look at this crisis that supports the idea that Russia is preparing to invade Ukraine again.
So what is new to prompt this kind of warning by NATO states to Russia? What kind of logistics preparations do we see behind the troop movements?
A blockade is an act of war. How much war does Russia plan?
UPDATE: Good question:
Can Russia accept living peacefully next to a sovereign, independent, and undivided Ukraine? Or is open war inevitable? This has long been the paramount question for Eastern Europe, and it has abruptly returned to the fore with the massive buildup of Russian military forces in Crimea and along Ukraine’s eastern border.
But the real question is whether Russia can accept a free Ukraine without lots of body bags going back to Russian mothers.
UPDATE: Uh oh:
Russia also announced that it was closing the airspace over parts of Crimea and the Black Sea, saying the areas had been "declared temporarily dangerous for aircraft flights," Russia's Interfax news agency reported on Tuesday, citing an official notice sent to pilots.
And more ominously, it looks like Russia does have 100,000 troops massed:
On Tuesday, the satellite images published by the Wall Street Journal showed the extent of the Russian force that’s causing so much concern. The photos, taken between March 27 and April 16 by commercial satellite company Maxar Technologies, show that Russia is gathering fighter jets, attack helicopters, and even building a new military hospital.
The story says the U.S. doesn't think the Russians have the logistics set up yet to invade.
Well, I'm going to say it. Russia is preparing to attack to seize the entire Sea of Azov coast to create a land bridge to Crimea.
Whether Russia also tries to seize all of the Donbas, including Kharkov; or ambitiously try to grab Odessa and the entire Black Sea Coast is something I won't try to predict.
UPDATE: I hope we are ready with weapons, supplies, and intelligence for Ukraine when (if?) the Russians go in.
The Russians helped Saddam in 2003, so have no guilt over helping Ukraine fight Russia.
UPDATE: The Russians have reinforced their air power in Crimea. Which would be useful to break out north or to strike targets from Odessa to Mariupol.
This is a lot of Russian effort if the purpose is just to intimidate Ukraine.
UPDATE: America is considering sending weapons to Ukraine. I suggest more Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
We aren't going to send Patriot missiles as the Ukrainians asked, since we'd have to man them.
And in general, if Ukrainian army engineers aren't working non-stop building defenses and obstacles, what's the point of having them?
UPDATE: The U.S. Defense Department:
“We certainly heard the Russians proclaim that this is all about training. It's not completely clear to us that that's exactly the purpose.”
Well, a small war could be training for a bigger war, you must admit.
UPDATE: This is not the attitude of a leader intent on military training exercises:
President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday sternly warned the West against encroaching further on Russia's security interests, saying Moscow's response will be “quick and tough” and make the culprits feel bitterly sorry for their action.
Please adjust your pucker factor accordingly.
UPDATE: Does Putin want a short and glorious war for a short-term popularity boost?
If so, Ukraine must decline to make the war short and glorious. Send the body bags back to Mother Russia. And NATO must provide Ukraine with the means to kill Russians.
But the shopping list in this article can't do any good without years to deliver, provide training to Ukrainians to operate, and integrate the weapons into Ukraine's arsenal.
UPDATE: Russia says the massing of troops is over and that the troops will return to their permanent stations. Hmm. What is Russia up to?
