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Monday, April 19, 2021

Making Sure the Sun Never Sets on British Trade Opportunities

A British commodore explains Britain's global strategy.

This basic defense approach of Global Britain sounds about right:

All instruments of national power should be brought to bear in the delivery of Global Britain. For defence, an implied task will be greater regional engagement throughout the Indo-Pacific. This will require a significant shift in the dynamics and methods of operating the military if it is to do more without affecting commitments elsewhere. The political necessity to operate in the same manner as it has done in Afghanistan and Iraq will need to become a thing of the past to avoid tying up too many resources in one region at the expense of others. This does not diminish the need to be able to shift to high-intensity, high-end warfighting where and when required, should the United Kingdom need to use the military to protect British interests. [emphasis added]

So the British will work to avoid major commitments of ground forces to extended combat. Which requires supporting allies who do that job themselves. But Britain could escalate to high-intensity warfare if needed. 

Although Britain's commitment will be smaller for such a fight because Britain's army will be smaller. And may require American partnership in some cases. But this will support all instruments of power and attract trade partners, which is a British interest post-Brexit.

It sounds about right because it tracks my judgment, of course:

It sounds like these [Vanguard Strike Companies] are the means of calling down the lightning bolts from Britain's carrier-centric fleet and possibly land-based air power to support a Thin Red Line ashore in support of allies.

Other British forces will shape the battlefield, as this decision indicates:

The SAS and other units in the Special Forces Group will likely work alongside MI6 to conduct covert surveillance operations against Russian spies and military units.

Those skills aren't just for Russians. And having VSC units as back up represents a lot of potential support if things get hot. 

And to enable the local allies to exploit the battlefield shaping include Rangers:

The new tasks for the SAS will be complemented by the Rangers, the army’s new battalions of troops to advise partner forces around the world and go into battle with them.

The smaller and lighter British conventional ground forces are behind all that if necessary.

As I've said, this may not work depending on specific threats. But it certainly seems like a reasonable policy to attract and defend trading partners, especially in Asia. Especially with the demonstrated hostility of the European Union over years of protracted and vindictive continental negotiations on the terms of Brexit.

Indeed, British success globally may undermine the EU's will to punish Britain for Brexit, by making that punishment moot in the face of British global trade.