If the Russians want to waste resources building up naval power in the Indian Ocean, I say that's great.
Just what is the bloody point of this Russian push?
February this year was marked by a heightened Russian naval activity in the Indian Ocean. Russian naval task groups drawn from the Baltic and Black Sea fleets took part in two international naval exercises – one with Iran and another as part of Pakistan-led multilateral exercise AMAN 21. Russia’s military presence in the region will soon include a permanent naval replenishment facility as it seeks to promote itself as an alternative source of influence to other global powers, such as the United States and China.
A blue water fleet is a waste of resources for a regional power like Russia with continents-spanning borders: But I wish they would waste resources:
I've argued that Russia needs to emphasize nuclear ballistic missile subs and coastal defense (including defense of SSBN bastions) with larger show-the-flag ships a small portion of their limited defense dollars that are needed for protecting their large land border.
I can't get too worked up about Russian naval plans. Whatever Russia has or will have will likely have only local significance until Western air and naval resources can be directed to deal with them.
For me, the important thing is that the Soviet fleet collapsed. It's role was to isolate Western Europe from North America so that Russia's army and air force could defeat NATO. Absent that mission, what on Earth does Putin think a new navy would do?
If Russia wants to waste money on a blue water fleet, by all means have a go at that. Enjoy!
The Russians can't seem to let go of their self-image from the Cold War. Which wasn't true then even with much greater military power. Russia's global influence was a mirage created by the fact that geography meant that an advance of 200 miles to the Rhine River would have globe-shaking effects. But Russian conventional power was not something that could be projected and sustained very far from its borders.
I welcome the Russians wasting resources away from the Baltic Sea:
Let the Russians spread out their already inadequate land, sea, and air power. The Black Sea is an economy-of-force front. NATO needs to focus on the Baltic Sea and the Suwalki Gap--and don't forget Belarus, which is probably the most important territory in Europe today.
That's the one area I want NATO and friendly countries to be able to control in the face of serious Russian opposition in order to support the Baltic states or Sweden and Finland.
The British recently exercised there, as I mentioned:
The British could dig into their archives to inform them on operating in this environment: "Warships from Britain, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, with Sweden's air force, joined forces for an exercise in the south Baltic Sea this week." The British fought what we'd call a "grey area" or "hybrid" war in the Baltic states after the World War I armistice in order to hold off the Reds in the Russian civil war. And to hold off the Germans trying to salvage something from their defeat.
We won't threaten Russia's SSBN bastions in the Barents Sea or Sea of Okhotsk unless provoked. The Black Sea is just a place to shoot up Russian naval forces. Local NATO forces will provide any Russians in the Mediterranean Sea with a short but exciting life. And who cares what the Russian Pacific forces do? South Korea could crush them.
Good God, the Russians are getting my hopes up that they might revive aircraft carrier ambitions!
NOTE: I added the sentence "But Russian conventional power was not something that could be projected and sustained very far from its borders." I did not mean to leave the impression that the USSR was not a threat. I just didn't see them as a global power. The importance of nearby Germany and NATO plus lots of nukes created the image of superpower status.
Russia can be a regional threat but it can't reclaim the Cold War image today no matter how badly they want to be the Big Bad again.
