Did Russia win anything of importance in Syria? I'm skeptical.
It is interesting that this analysis of whether Russia achieved a victory of any consequence in Syria starts with the assumption that the fall of Assad would mean a jihadi victory that would have a domino effect inside Russia.
One, is that cause and effect true? Russia had problems with Moslems inside Russia well before the Syrian civil war. Was there an effect from the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan on Russia? Maybe there was. But I'd like more than an assertion.
Two, why would a
jihadi-led defeat of Assad have been the last word on who controlled
Syria after Assad? I assume a rough local coalition backed--and likely
at cross-purposes in many cases--by Israel, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
and America would have waged war on the Islamist victors. It wouldn't have been as focused as my Win, Build, Win approach to ISIL and Assad. But that would have been the rough outline.
And three, it wasn't Russian intervention that ended the Islamic State. That was the American coalition. Jihadis only control territory in the northwest where Russian efforts have been stalled by Turkey.
I never thought Russia's expedition would be a large-scale "quagmire" for Russia. But I fail to see what Russia has really gained. An outpost in the eastern Mediterranean Sea is pointless without major resources.
Ultimately the Syria intervention seems more as a justification for annexing Crimea.
Also, I think it is inaccurate to say that Assad controls a large portion of Syria. Assad reigns but does not rule. Ruling seems to be more what the Russians do in their base areas and what Iranians and local military commanders do in other parts of Syria where rebels or terrorists were defeated.
Unless Assad has reasserted authority since last I read about what is going on, of course. But I don't think so. Still, Assad survived the war. That is a personal victory and a victory for his surviving supporters.
But Russia? Yes, the intervention worked. Weapons were tested. Reputation enhanced. Even if it was the American intervention that was decisive. But Russia's victory seems pointless in the long run. And too expensive.
Unless Putin convinces the West to pay for rebuilding Russia's new client state Syria. We're not that stupid, are we?
