I remain worried about the Taiwanese ability to defend their own country.
This testimony does not make me feel better:
Taiwan’s military is not yet “optimally manned, trained, equipped and motivated to defend against an attack” by China on the self-ruled island, and efforts at defense reform face obstacles from institutional opposition from senior officers and a lack of time.
This is according to Michael Hunzeker, assistant professor at George Mason University’s School of Policy and Government, who testified to the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. The hearing was held last month to discuss ways to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan, which China considers a rogue province and has vowed to take back by force if necessary.
Hunzeker added that Taiwan’s military needs to focus on countering the threat of a full-scale invasion by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army vis-a-vis “sub-invasion” scenarios that would see large-scale missile strikes, blockades or the seizure of Taiwanese islands located in the Taiwan Strait separating the two countries.
He argued that the defensive capabilities and preparations that will help Taiwan defend against a full-scale invasion will also be useful against “lesser” threats rather than serving as a distraction against them.
Hear, hear on the full-scale invasion standard for Taiwanese preparations. Do read it all.
I think China can invade Taiwan. And I think it is vitally important to eject any Chinese troops that make it ashore rather than accept a premature ceasefire-in-place, as I argued in Military Review.
But the testimony as reported is a bit contradictory. Seek to counter an invasion and use an asymmetrical approach under the ODC concept? While I think Taiwan's Overall Defense Concept is okay as far as it goes, the asymmetric obsession can easily slide into a refusal to build a military capable of stopping a full-scale invasion. Really, it can.
Taiwan needs to spend a lot more on defense. Not only for the capabilities but to demonstrate that they care enough about their freedom and independence to sacrifice to defend their island democracy.
UPDATE: I worry about this:
"Taiwan's Army does not seem to have a contingency plan for what it will do if the PLA finds a way to fight its way off the beaches or, worse yet, finds a way to skip the beaches entirely," [Michael Hunzeker, an assistant professor at George Mason University] said.
To repeat, I think China can invade Taiwan and as I wrote in that MR article, the invaders must be thrown into the sea.
