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Thursday, December 03, 2020

Unnatural Allies

One day Russia will stop sucking up to China out of fear. That day is not here yet.

Yes:

Since the 1990s Russia has become economically dependent on China, especially during the last decade because of low oil prices and post-2014 Ukraine related economic sanctions. Russia and China often cooperate when dealing with their mutual enemies, which currently includes just about every other country on the planet. Yet Russia and China are unnatural allies because Russia has taken much from China in the past and China never abandoned it claims on those lost territories. This is not just about territorial disputes in the Russian Far East but also past Russian wrongs done to China. One of the most prominent of these was how the 1950-53 Korean War included China because Russia (Josef Stalin) insisted. In 1950 Russia was an essential military, economic and political ally of China. Despite many misgivings, China complied, sending over two million troops to North Korea over the next three years. About a third of these soldiers were casualties. 

Those territorial claims are huge and a big deal to China even if they are quiet for now.

I thought Russia was starting to end their appeasement of China. But if so, it is early. 

And it might go the other way if China's traditional view of its role wins out. Perhaps after a short and glorious Chinese victory over Russia that signals the power disparity for all to see. Or will Russia concede checkmate more quietly? Does it depend on whether China wants to rub Russia's nose in defeat or not?

Until something changes, Russia will continue to ignore the Chinese threat and pretend they are bravely resisting a non-existent NATO threat. Bravo. Really, brilliantly played

UPDATE: Why does Putin keep talking about a military alliance with China? 

As this post suggests, it is because Putin is trying to hide the fact that Russia is getting close to being a vassal state of China and nothing close to being a partner.