The Chinese fleet has more ships than America's Navy.
This is what China has built so far with their PLA Navy:
By 2020 the Chinese fleet had (in active service) two aircraft carriers, 75 subs, including seven SSBNs (nuclear ballistic missile subs), eight SSNs (nuclear attack subs), 60 SSK (non-nuclear attack subs). There are 300 surface warships including 50 destroyers, 49 frigates, 71 corvettes, 109 missile boats, 94 small ASW (anti-submarine warfare) ships and 17 gunboats. There are 75 amphibious ships including (in order of size) two LHDs, eight LPDs, 32 LSTs and 33 LSMs. There are 287 support ships including 36 mine clearing vessels, 19 oilers (for refueling ships far from a base), 30 coastal oilers, 27 fleet supply ships (for resupply at sea), six troop transports and a lot of harbor, training and medical support ships as well as intelligence collection ships, hospital ships, submarine rescue ships. The Chinese navy has also made arrangements with the operators of over fifty civilian cargo ships and ferries to make their vessels quickly available in the event of a major emergency. That comes to 743 active ships with over sixty percent combat ships and the rest support vessels. That support force is the true mark of a major high-seas fleet.
As, Strategypage notes, the United States Navy--of 293 major warships--still has a "considerable edge in tonnage, manpower, firepower and experience."
But I imagine the tonnage lies in our big deck carriers and amphibious warships. The firepower edge will also come from those ships--if they live long enough. Although our nuclear attack submarines no doubt pull a lot of weight in the calculation of the balance.
The manpower and experience edge probably isn't as great as we think it is given some high profile surface ship accidents over the last several years. Hopefully we are improving on that.
China also has a lot of shore-based planes and missiles. And their Coast Guard is large and capable of fighting.
On the other hand, America has regional allies with strong air and naval forces such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and India.
Let's hope China's rise is stalled enough to derail China's hopes to match the tonnage, manpower, firepower, and experience gaps. The Navy needs to do better in the intangibles. Keeping the surface fleet in working order is a challenge. How good are we doing on that that if the occasional FONOP that merely sails through the South China Sea is "stressing" the Navy? I don't see the stressful pace.
And let's hope our diplomacy and military power keeps our allies with us.
China's fleet doesn't have to sail far to reach areas of critical importance to America. And China's navy has made great strides since I wrote that.
The best course of action, of course, is to give China higher priorities than the sea.
