It is good that Iran's influence in Lebanon via Hezbollah is more shaky now. But is it good enough?
In Lebanon Iran-backed Hezbollah is under growing threat from the Lebanese people and security forces. After decades of Iran sponsored intimidation, Lebanese are talking back and telling Hezbollah and Iran that Israel is not the enemy, Iran and its Lebanese followers are. A lot of those pro-Iran Lebanese were in it for the money and in the last year Iran has cut its cash contributions by more than half. This is because of an economic crisis back in Iran. It was discouraging for Iran when they realized how many supporters Hezbollah lost because Iranian payments had ceased.
That's nice. But is a weakened Hezbollah weak enough for divided Labanon to suppress?
I tend to think Hezbollah can endure this and that any hope of destroying Hezbollah will require a major Israeli ground effort.
I'll add as I have a number of times in that scenario over the years that Israel needs to avoid hitting non-Hezbollah Lebanese targets. I know that there is some thinking that punishing Lebanon for tolerating Hezbollah will get Lebanese to rally against Hezbollah. I tend to think it will make Lebanese hostile to Israel and less capable of taking on Hezbollah.
We'll see. Or not. I've thought we'll see for at least a decade now.
