Fireworks and ammonium nitrate appear to have been the fuel that ignited a massive explosion that rocked the Lebanese capital of Beirut, experts and videos of the blast suggest.
The scale of the damage — from the epicenter of the explosion at the port of Beirut to the windows blown out kilometers (miles) away — resembles other blasts involving the chemical compound commonly used as an agricultural fertilizer.
But the compound itself typically doesn't detonate on its own and requires another ignition source. That likely came from a fire that engulfed what initially appeared to be fireworks that were stored at the port.
Could be. And for most other countries I'd say that's the likely explanation. But Lebanon is in economic and political chaos, the Xi Jingping Flu pandemic, many Sunni Arab refugees from Syria, and lots of armed factions including the powerful Iranian pawn Hezbollah. So my mind goes elsewhere.
The ammonium nitrate is bulky and is used for fertilizer and can be used for explosives. My guess early on is that it was Iran trying to build a truck bomb to use against Israeli forces along the border. And something went wrong while building it, leading to fire or detonation and then the secondary big explosion.
Iran has been losing its battle with Israel and wants a win. Israel and Hezbollah deny being involved. The former seems unlikely and I've read recently that neither want war with the other, as I mentioned in the last data dump.
If Hezbollah wouldn't do it, Iran may have decided to do it themselves. Or maybe it really was just an accident. I'm just guessing, after all.
The casualties are huge and likely will grow as information comes in. Nobody will want to take the blame for this. Even if somebody did it it may be convenient for everyone to stick with the accident explanation and avoid civil war on top of everything else.
UPDATE: It certainly could be purely an accident:
The story of the ship [Rhosus] and its deadly cargo, which emerged Wednesday in accounts from Lebanon, Russia and Ukraine, offered a bleak tale about how legal battles, financial wrangling and, apparently, chronic negligence set the stage for a horrific accident that devastated one of the Middle East’s most fondly regarded cities.
But it could be an "accident" in an effort to weaponize the cargo. Again, I'm rounding up the usual suspects here.
UPDATE: A number of updates on the aftermath, focusing on international aid offers.
UPDATE: The disinformation efforts begin. I'm just going to say that someone building a truck bomb would have lots of incentive to make people think a missile (coughIsraelcough) was the cause of the massive explosion.
UPDATE: If the Arab League and Turkey get heavily involved in rebuilding and rescuing Lebanon, could we get a happy side effect of reducing the influence and power of Iran-dominated Hezbollah in Lebanon?
UPDATE: Of course, corruption in Lebanon could make foreign aid go up in smoke as easily as if it was stored next to 3,000 tons of ammonium nitrate. Hezbollah will view this aid as a Godsend as Iran has reduced support because of financial difficulties.
UPDATE: Is Macron right that the future of Lebanon is at risk from this explosion because of its many problems? That's a pretty fragile country if a single accident or attack risks that.
And if the results are this bad, how hard will the people responsible for this--especially if it wasn't a pure accident--try to cover up their responsibility?
UPDATE: Lebanese aren't happy with Hezbollah:
The August 4th 1.1 kiloton explosion in the Hezbollah controlled port of Beirut has triggered another round of anti-Hezbollah and anti-Iran demonstrations in Lebanon. The national government has resigned. Hezbollah is denying any responsibility for the explosion even though Hezbollah has boasted of controlling the port area for years.
Hezbollah has enough raw power that demonstrations will likely have little effect.
