Economic hardship has become a major problem for the Assad government. In 2019 Iranian economic problems led to a sharp (over 50 percent) cut in cash aid to Syria. This year the sanctions on Syria have multiplied and been enforced more effectively. It is harder for the average Syrian to buy consumer goods and basic items. This can be seen in the exchange rate; how many Syrian pounds it takes to buy a dollar. In 2011 it was 47 pounds, now it is over 3,000. Dollars are needed to pay for imports and the dollar shortages for everyone, even the wealthiest, are a daily reminder that the war may be won but the peace and reconstruction that was to follow are not happening. Local officials throughout Syria are dealing with individual complaints of privation and in some towns there have been public demonstrations against the government inability to turn battlefield victories into a better life for Syrians who supported the Assads.
I've asked if Assad can survive victory. More than once.
I know, there are still some jihadis in the field and the Kurds resist Assad's control. But they aren't threats to his throne.
But Assad's bastion of support, after suffering so much in blood and treasure to keep him in power, may decide things have changed. They may decide that without the threat of Islamist Sunni jihadis to keep them in line and sacrificing out of fear, that Assad has too little to offer the Alawites, Shias, and Christians who backed Assad to this point.
Let's see if throwing somebody under the bus shifts the blame:
Syrian President Bashar Assad on Thursday fired his prime minister, a month ahead of elections and as the economic crisis worsens and public anger rises in the territory under his control.
Is he about to be overthrown?
For the first time in nearly a decade, the millions of Syrians who outwardly support Assad or who have remained quietly loyal to his rule have begun to share whispers of their own exasperation. For most, life in 2020 is a great deal worse than life at the peak of nationwide armed conflict in 2014-15. In holding on to power, Assad has effectively—and purposely—destroyed his own nation and economy.
The author thinks this is an "opportunity" to rescue Assad. To Hell with that.
The idea the West should save that butcher and ally of Russia and Iran is offensive. I say let the Russians and Iranians pay for their pet and host for their military forces. Why should we subsidize our enemies?
Assad needs money to rebuild and reward his supporters. So he either needs Iran restored to relative financial health by an election change in America that opens the money spigot; or Assad needs Iran's mullahs to be defeated so he can expel the Iranians and get the good will of the Arab world again. The West is not an option to save his odious regime.
I refuse to care more about the people of Syria than Assad, the Russians, or the Iranians do, and who have benefited from the disaster inflicted on Syria.
UPDATE: Is the problem broader than Syria?
Lebanon and Syria are both lurching toward implosion, with popular uprisings or even civil wars an increasing possibility.
That would explain Israeli restraint about hammering Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran on Israel's border in Syria. Never get in the way when your enemies are destroying themselves.
UPDATE: Another overview from Strategypage.
