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Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Can Assad Survive Victory?

Corruption in broke and war-devastated Syria is rampant. Russia and Iran could afford to help Assad stay behind the big desk at the price of destroying Syria, but cannot and will not pay to rebuild Syria. Will Assad survive victory?

The price of victory may be higher than Assad can pay:

Rami Makhlouf, the wealthy cousin of Syrian dictator Basher Assad, released a video on Facebook in which he pleaded with his cousin Basher to work with him to resolve financial problems Makhlouf is having. ... This video was very embarrassing for Basher and verified reports that he was losing control of his local allies. A recent opinion poll, conducted in areas where Russia has troops (and could safeguard the pollsters) found that Basher had little support among Syrians, who also blame Assad for the growing corruption and lawlessness in areas under Assad control.

Assad won, no doubt. He killed his way to victory. But Syria lost. The question is whether Assad can reimpose control over local allies that could be acting more as local fiefdoms than loyal subordinates.

Can Assad survive victory? If there was justice built into the system, in the near future we will replace the term Pyrrhic Victory with Assad Victory.