I really want to know how the shutdown of our economy ends. People need to work. And few can just work from home.
Checks paid for with borrowed money will help bridge the unemployment gap but cannot be a replacement for an economy based on work. We're not at the point where the robots can do the work for us, regardless of whether that is good or bad. And I hate to break it to you, but just printing money or minting super-expensive coins is not the answer for long.
So again, what are the conditions that let us re-start the economy? And can we just "re-start" the economy at our choice, like it is a mere machine under our control? What can the government do to make sure too many businesses don't hang back and risk going broke by starting up before there are customers?
As the debates ratchet up on when is too soon, that observation is catching on. Part of that issue may be convincing enough Americans that it is safe to go back in the water:
There needs to be confidence in local hospital capacity. "We have to arrest the spread of the virus," said [U.S. Representative Tom] Cotton, "and we have to give people confidence that if they do get out of their homes, go back to work, or go back to their normal economic life of shopping and going to restaurants and so forth, that 1) they're probably not going to get the virus, and 2) if they do, the healthcare system will be up and functioning and able to treat them."
That involves defeating the flu by containing and nullifying it through policies, personal behaviors, treatments, and vaccines.
But that's not the only part. In a vast country with economic transactions spanning our country and entire planet, how do we rebuild all those links suddenly ruptured globally be the Wuhan Flu? It isn't just a problem for China trying to open up first.
And for God's sake, the debate over whether the president or the governors have the power to restart the economy is completely misplaced. I side with governors on this but the power of the federal government to print money gives the federal government leverage that makes the state powers largely irrelevant as a practical matter. Both must cooperate and the states can decide but not make things work on their own.
I'd love a spontaneous V-shaped crash and recovery. But the damage is too deep and too wide around the planet to get that, I think. I'd really love to be wrong.
