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Sunday, March 01, 2020

Weekend Data Dump

Oh. my. God. I like the Schwan's company products, but their home visits to drum up business are really annoying. I told the driver not to do that. I called the company and told them I don't want home visits apart from an order delivery. And yet I received a notice this last week that there will be another visit? WTF? The visits can't be stopped! I can't even cancel my account online! I did manage to cancel all home visits until May via my seemingly permanent account. Maybe by then I won't be quite as pissed off at their near-stalker behavior. Maybe I should answer the door wearing an N95 face mask and tell the driver about my recent vacation to China. Just based on the food I've ordered I'd recommend them. But with their delivery model? No way. All I want to do is order from them online when I want something. Is that too much to ask? Or is this the Hotel California Schwan?

Although details remain to be finalized it looks like American efforts to get Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia to come to an agreement on the latter's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile has paid off. Egypt and Sudan don't like the prospect of the spigot to their water supply being in someone else's hands like that. But let's get to that final agreement.

Yes, with the F-35B and Osprey, our amphibious warfare ships can now operate as effective light carriers (CVLs). Although they are the size of actual World War II fleet carriers, so "light" is relative. But this usage makes sense only in the context of being a secondary capability to their primary amphibious warfare capability. We should not build CVLs. It is not cost-effective. And yeah, I'm all on board the distributed amphibioius warfare school that that the initial linked article discusses (USNI membership required for full access online).

Making sure that only legal votes are cast is in no way infringing on the right to vote. If anyone on the left tried this maneuver it really would trigger a serious crisis.

This is a great feel-good story about David Ayres. What a day, eh?!

With the Wuhan Flu coronavirus reaching Iraq, it occurs to me that the virus could be used as an excuse to completely pull our troops out of places like Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, among other places where we can't simply pull back into bases, shut the gates, and ride out the epidemic. Hopefully everyone rotating back to the United States is put in isolation for two full weeks just in case. This could be very disruptive even if it doesn't prove deadly.

Vietnam didn't ony buy Yak-130 jet trainers from Russia. Vietnam is trying to buy a counter-weight to resist Chinese pressure. And if Russia thinks it can count on Vietnam for the same thing, maybe Russia will end their policy of appeasing China. Which could ease a lot of tensions that Russia creates with NATO and non-NATO Western countries.

I am all in favor of helping Iraqi and Afghan interpreters at risk come to America, but is it being abused? And at some point the enemies are beaten down enough to end the program, right? Tip to Instapundit.

As a father I feel deeply sorry for Greta Thunberg. But I have nothing but contempt for the parents and adults who exploit her. May Greta survive what has been done to her. She will be tossed aside when she is no longer of use.

The Red Green Show was once just the title of a funny television show that looked at Canada, but now that simply describes Canada's suicidal policies under PM Justin Bieber. It got prosperous enough to think prosperity is a given that can't be harmed by any counter-productive policy. And perhaps the multi-ethnic Balkanization that Canada pursues is a warning to America--as if the actual outcome of the former Yugoslavia about the fruits of non-assimilation isn't enough of one. I guess we'll see if Canada survives this. Pity. It was a nice country.

Any Venezuelan business owners who think they can survive cooperation with Maduro's embrace of private enterprises should consider that Lenin used his similar New Economic Policy to survive socialist economic failures until a police state was mature enough to kill off such business "parasites" that threatened the communist revolution. Who will be the local Stalin to replace the witless Maduro?

No, Biden was not arrested by apartheid South Africa as Biden claims. Let this join the Hillary Clinton under sniper fire in Sarajevo in the Walter Mitty fantasy category.

Another jihadi plot I never heard of. Very few American Moslems are prone to jihadi impulses. But needless to say if this had been one of those right-wing white nationalists I hear about but never really see (but who are obviously bad regardless of their lack of numbers), we'd have had a media-sponsored national conversation every day about it.

The administration's efforts to contain Iran and finally kill the protections of the Iran deal that Iran's mullahs still enjoy. And Lebanon and Saudi Arabia. Let me say I'm skeptical that UN sanctions can be "snapped back" in place.

People are morons. Far be it for me to defend Chris Matthews, but he was not in any way comparing the Bernie Sanders Nevada caucus victory to the Nazi conquest of France in 1940 as if Bernie equals Nazis. Matthews' comparison was regarding the surprising ease of the defeat of the anti-Bernie institutional Democratic Party camp. His point was comparing that to the defeatism of the French in 1940 when the British assumed France still had the best army in Europe. As in, how could either be defeated so quickly? Not that I'm not enjoying a not-quite-socialist leftist getting the illegitimate Nazi treatment from those further to the left after my side endured the slander for decades. Oh thank God! My defense of Matthews is irrelevant because Matthews retreated quickly before the mob and apologized for something that required no apology.

The only bright spot about these repulsive bullying college-enrolled children is that when Bernie is in charge he'll silence and then send those economically worthless children of the elite to the countryside to toil in the fields. Why they even go to such Hell-hole universities if they are truly at such risk is beyond me.

Trump visited India, looking to eventually get a trade deal and promoting a helicopter sale to the Indian military. So America and India move closer to contain a common foe China. America is now, as this Strategypage notes, India's largest trading partner.

Yes, Russian interference in American politics is about helping Americans tear our country apart. The Resistance is enthusiastically carrying out its role as a useful idiot class for Putin.

I have a guess why a driver would slam into dozens of people in a German town. But who knows? Maybe it is something "normal."

Unmanned ground vehicles.

That would be refreshing given that this is usually only done to conservatives, but I suspect that if Bernie wrote a woman's rape fantasy involving getting cancer from too many orgasms on Fifth Avenue that Bernie Bros would still support Bernie. Heck, back then Bernie probably didn't even know about the other pronouns! Wrongthinker!

Lessons from the Libya civil war on artillery, drones, and jamming. What? The lessons from the Donbas haven't scared the Hell out of you enough? The U. S. Army has certainly noticed.

I honestly don't understand why Putin has intervened in Libya. What is worth the effort there? I swear, Putin intervenes just to be noticed. I don't think this is a matter of wanting Russia to be feared rather than liked. I think the Russians mostly fear being ignored, as I quipped in this post: "I swear to God that Putin measures his power by how much he can poke the West and get media coverage. He'd rather be feared than liked--or, God forbid, ignored. His escalating intervention in Syria is like some bizarre form of click bait."

I've mentioned before that our small military presence in AFRICOM leverages major French and local efforts to fight and kill jihadis in West Africa. And elsewhere around the continent. Why would we risk that by reducing the already small American force presence in Africa to move them to Europe or Asia where they will be a drop in the bucket?

If the Russians were smart they'd focus their major navy efforts on SSBNs and a new SSN to protect those nuclear ballistic missile subs in coastal bastions to preserve a survivable nuclear deterrent. But can the Russian resist spending scarce money hither and yon on non-critical ships instead of on core needs? I mean, the press releases are just insane as I noted in this post: "Russia will not--contrary to this story--have a nuclear aircraft carrier. I wish Russia could build an aircraft carrier--Hell, build a bunch! A powerful fleet for broke Russia is one of the three sources of Russian weakness, after all. Russia likes to float stories about future carrier plans--and they always will." We'll see if the new Laika SSN design ever gets built or if it even works away from the blueprints. But on paper it is awesome. Perhaps that is all Russia can afford. Press releases are more common than mass production for new advanced Russian weapons.

If only all terrorists were this effing stupid.  Tip to Instapundit.

The efforts to distinguish socialism from communism is pointless when you consider that the Soviet Union was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. "Communism" was merely the mythical end state after socialist oppression had created the type of people that could allow the state to wither away. No socialist state ever gets to that mythical happy end state, of course. And don't even get me started on National Socialism (Nazis) versus the international version of the communist socialists. On the other hand, while Bernie is a proud socialist, many of his supporters no doubt use "socialism" as a shorthand term for an expanded welfare state. Which has its own problems but if not accompanied by socialism is at least less worse.

So, for the good of the planet, what groups of people get their populations "controlled" and aborted? Conveniently, the Green people say the good of the planet requires someone else--in poor countries--to sacrifice, I suppose. Tip to Instapundit.

Triton MQ-4C wide-area ocean patrol drones enter the Navy arsenal. Such drones can perform persistent overwatch of a carrier task force, too.

I can't evaluate Senator Schumer's claim that the Trump administration doesn't have a plan to deal with the coronavirus. That is outside of my lane. But I can say that the left has a strange worship of the power of plans and their ability to plan. And of course, Schumer is a hyper-partisan and I don't trust his judgment about whether there is an adequate plan. Remember, these are the people who say you never let a crisis go to waste. They seem to want an epidemic here. Hey, Bernie understands that whole (Sierra Blanca) omelet and egg-breaking relationship. Still, I have no idea if we can suppress its spread here or not. I'm hoping for suppression. But we're a big and open country. Just work the problem.

Canada is still dithering about a new fighter plane to replace aging planes.

I think the impeachment power of Congress is broader than Trump's defenders claim. But I also think that Congress did not demonstrate the restraint in using that power against Trump that the broadness requires to prevent it from descending into pure partisan warfare.

An American armored brigade with all its equipment was sent to Europe in a test of our ability to reinforce NATO in Europe. It isn't REFORGER because the troops from the continental United States are bringing their equipment from the United States rather than the Cold War program of flying troops in to pull equipment stored in Europe out of depots. But our new exercises will help restore deterrence. And we should build up unit sets for actual REFORGER with equipment in unit sets established in Europe. I've been in favor of that--pushed east--for a while.

Could covid19 end the border-less Europe that is the very foundation of the European Union? Well, the thought of allowing in too many jihadi-loving fanatics among migrants and refugees didn't kill the ideal.

Do not admire Bernie Sanders. He admires the monsters who hate us.

"The State Department listed Ahmad al-Hamidawi, secretary general of armed faction Kataib Hezbollah, as a 'specially designated global terrorist[.]'"  Good. Phase IX of the Iraq War to defeat Iran there continues.

Could the covid19 coronavirus inspire Iraq to cut off all border crossings with Iran, where the disease as spread from pilgrims gathering in Qom, as a protection--having the side effect of reducing Iranian influence in Iraq? Or would Iraqi corruption make any effort doomed to fail? Further, Arab states with infected minority Shia pilgrims returning without any warning from Iran--making it seem almost like germ warfare--may really get angry with Iran. And Arab Shias may share that anger if the Sunni governments make clear efforts to help cope with the disease. Interesting times indeed, for Iran, on top of their other problems.

Hong Kong resistance to China is still alive despite the coronavirus. But however prudent under the circumstances, a virtual resistance is no way to strain the government which is standing down crowd suppression activities in a needed break for the police.

The bad news is that covid19 is harming the ability of American and South Korean forces to train to fight North Korea. The "good" news is that if the virus gets loose in North Korea, it will have far worse effects there.

There really are a lot of oikophobic morons with PhDs out there. To be fair, they "hear" a lot of stupid things from inside their own heads. Tip to Instapundit.

The Chinese people don't believe in the government? The whole 1984 control apparatus the Chinese Communist Party is building shows that the "government" (the party, really) just wants obedience and not faith.

Venezuelans continue to enjoy the compassionate embrace of a socialist government that promised to take care of all their needs. Tip to Instapundit.

At President Trump's press conference on the coronavirus response effort here last Wednesday night, I was amused that he corrected a reporter's pronunciation of "Xi" when asking Trump about China. Trump even noted that it took him a while to get that right. Years of being immersed in briefings and governance make those things second nature. Which is why I don't react to the "gotcha" questions about who the leader of Upper Whositstan is. Details like that come with time in office. It's nice to have the background to know those things offhand but it is hardly a deal breaker for leadership. I couldn't pass a lot (almost all) of those tests. But as Einstein replied to the reporter who was astounded that Einstein didn't off the top of his head know the speed of sound at sea level. "I know where to look it up."

Bill Barr is doing just fine despite the hysterics of the TDS Resistance and MAGA loyalists. Tip to Instapundit.

Is internal warfare in South Sudan finally going to end? Eventually people do tire of the killing (and being killed) when they can't seem to win.

I'd correct this explanation to "Fascism is remembered as a crime. Communism is treated like a failure to perfect it." Both are crimes. Because they are more similar than different.

I've written that Taiwan under military threat from China should go on the ideological offensive by establishing a League of Democracies on Taiwan to promote democracy and best practices in national, state/provincial, and local democracy (with rule of law prominent, naturally). Taiwan's response to the coronavirus could be a nice teachable moment contrast to the mainland, no?

Democrats: Trump is colluding with covid19 to justify suspending elections and remaining in power forever in 3, 2, 1 ... .

Cheap drones for the infantry--and for their enemiesMy thoughts on defending infantry from drone swarm attacks in Army magazine.

Huh (tip to Instapundit). Well, after being told that Trump would set up concentration camps and deport them all back to Latin America, the contrast with actual results is reassuring, no? I imagine a lot of people will notice the lack of actual hysterical prediction results since Trump's election. So talking now that Trump's reelection is an "existential" threat to the West after coming up empty with claims that his election would be that sound kind of stupid now, doesn't it? And worry about preserving the West takes a lot of nerve coming from a German leader, no?

Wise words about decentralization of media thought and governance.

Greece agrees to send a Patriot battery to Saudi Arabia. Because it is nice to make a friend of a common foe, Turkey.

There are racists in America. And around the world, of course. Like many things attributed solely to America it is a human problem. But so many high profile allegations turn out to hoaxes--here's another--that I assume the initial headlines are wrong until confirmed. Clearly the supply of actual racists isn't sufficient to meet the demand from the left. And the boy who cried "Wolf!" thing, naturally.

Department of Defense military and civilian personnel in the Middle East have travel restrictions to insulate them from the coronavirus.

While being on the defense has tactical advantages, to win a war eventually you must go on the offensive.

Good Lord, the Iowa Democratic caucus results still aren't solid enough to fully trust.

Venezuela continues to spiral down the drain under the demented and inept rule of socialist autocrat Maduro. America isn't going to invade to stop the descent into Hell under that well-fed fool. But somebody should. What is the OAS doing? What was once a functioning country is now an abattoir costing lives (of regime opponents) on a vast scale. And consider that humanitarian aid would just transfer the cost of Maduro's cynical and cruel strategy of keeping his people too hungry to revolt from the regime to the world. The world can't care more about the fate of Venezuelans than the Venezuelan government cares.

While this report does not say Corona beer sales are down because of the coronavirus, the beer's brand image is taking a hit. Which is surprising. I would have thought that Jock Itch IPA would have taken the hit.

I don't think any deal with the Taliban will end the Afghanistan war. At best it gets America out of the direct line of fire while the government forces battle the Taliban. At worst it is a decent interval until after the election, which is what Obama got after withdrawing our troops from Iraq at the end of 2011. I assume any deal will have no effect on our anti-ISIL and anti-al Qaeda battle there. I mean, no effect unless the Afghan government loses the war against the Taliban without our more robust help. In that case we have to pull everyone out and our anti-terrorist efforts fade to drive-by occasional aerial strikes.

The Chinese are extremely focused on  being a-holes, now. Way to get sympathy for your epidemic.

Again, I have no ability to judge whether Trump's anti-coronavirus efforts are effective. But I can judge that the media sat out any criticism of Obama over his late H1N1 response. I hear people opposed to Trump--or at least Trump-skeptical--saying that it is ridiculous for Trump to say that the media is only covering the virus to hurt Trump. Technically, those critics are correct. The issue itself will lead to coverage. But harming Trump certainly does explain the media enthusiasm for covering the issue with novel forms of blaming Trump about speculations about what might happen and how he might fail to meet the challenges.

But with that said, who ever allowed this stupid response to the covid19 virus--whether political appointee or "professional" civil servant--should be fired.

There is a system to prevent overkills on some targets while others aren't fired at. Which complements this capability nicely.

Hahahaha!

For you kids out there who don't get this.

The Libyan civil war continues. Haftar's LNA still hasn't captured Tripoli.

Well that's a major effing vulnerability that I didn't know we granted China the ability to exploit. Tip to Instapundit. We shouldn't want China to send illness our way and we shouldn't want China to control the medicine to combat them.

I was forced back to putting-logs-on-the-fire levels of heating involvement when my furnace died Friday night. I learned my lesson about night service calls well over a decade ago when a fan replacement was half the cost of the original installation. So I wait until Monday morning to call for service or replacement estimates. It seems that I am well into the normal range of life expectancy for such things. I used every incandescent light in my home, opened blinds when those windows had direct sunlight, got my gas fireplace going for a bit before it refused to light from the pilot light, used my oven on low with a fan for twenty minutes every hour in the evening Saturday, and eventually ran out Sunday morning to buy a space heater. I kept it to between 60 and 65 until I went to sleep. I dressed warmly, of course. Naturally I kept the faucets on low. Weather is getting better starting today so I'm good until I can get this going again! Several attempts to restart the furnace failed and repeated the LED warning code. To think that 7 days before the furnace failure I paid for a furnace servicing that gave it a good bill of health. I'll mention that Monday. Oh, and I knocked out the water heater when I accidentally shut off the gas to everything rather than just the furnace. It took me until the next morning to figure out how to relight it. Modern systems are awesome. And really noticeable when absent.

The left here always claims ethnic and racial violence is descending on America. But it always seems to land somewhere else. That's not a healthy feature for a rising power that hopes to hold off China.

Trump is pushing for a single nuclear arms limit treaty with Russia and China (Three-START?). Is this a way to pressure Russia into a better bilateral deal by threatening to dethrone Russia as our sole nuclear arms control partner?

Comrade! Your services are no longer needed! The purges come for everyone, eventually. Tip to Instapundit.

For years I've wondered why feminists aren't the most hard core anti-jihadis. And now that we may leave Afghanistan, the media wonders what will happen to women if the jihadis gain strength. It would be funny if it wasn't enraging and potentially tragic.

As we prepare to meet the covid19 coronavirus at home, there is no "rally around the flag effect" among Democrats.

Political parties should not allow outsiders to take them over. Trump did that and Bernie will at worst (from his perspective) be the one who almost did it twice. And I say that as someone who has come to be even more relieved than I was on election night that Trump defeated Clinton. We could work deals in the middle more easily if the parties could enforce discipline, I think. Although the same social media that allows outsiders to penetrate an open party system could make it impossible for party leaders to enforce discipline. Note Pelosi caving on impeachment demands of the Twitter Activists. So maybe that party ship has sailed and there is no going back. Tip to Instapundit. In related news, The Nation asks if the Democrats will destroy their party to stop Bernie Sanders.

Restoring frigates to a sea-control Navy. And a discussion of the LCS failure. The mission modules were a good idea that was somehow effed up. But that is a dangerous crisis for almost all of the newly designed vessels the Navy has tried to build (is the Virginia SSN the only recent exception?). Although I was always horrified that the poorly protected ships were intended to operate close to shore within arms reach of simple direct fire weapons. That shipping container-based system was part of the inspiration for this idea (in Military Review, starting on page 50) after a similar but Navy-focused version was rejected by USNI).

Bernie Sanders praises Fidel Castro for his literacy program that softens that whole oppression and murder stuff. My memory is that before Castro took control Cuba already had better-than-average literacy in Latin America. But from Castro's point of view, you have to admit that having the power to tell people what the can't read and what they must read is rather pointless if the people are unable to read.

So Democrats say Russia was decisive in affecting our 2016 election with a paltry sum of money spent on a lot of amateurish Facebook-based propaganda ploys. Yet a billionaire managed to spend about a quarter of a billion dollars to get zero delegates in the Democratic primary race before dropping out. For God's sake, Joe Freaking Biden won his first race ever in 50 years outside of Delaware, with Steyer nowhere in sight, in South Carolina! Young billionaires around a camp fire will tell horror stories about Tom Steyer as a cautionary tale. But the season is young and Bloomberg is still out there. Tip to Instapundit.

I think these morons should be arrested, prosecuted, and expelled from college. It isn't civil disobedience for a greater cause if you get away with it. So really, this is all about my compassion for their self image as brave '60s-style protesters.

Killing the goose that lays the Egyptian cotton egg.

After Biden unexpectedly won South Carolina big, will Bloomberg back out of the race to let Biden be the alternative to Sanders? Isn't the rationale for Bloomberg that he is the only one who can stop Bernie? Or has the Oval Office bug infected Bloomberg who hums himself to sleep with "Hail to the Chief?"

How will countries that China courts for their ambition Belt and Road initiative for trade infrastructure react when they realize it is the Epidemic and Coverup initiative? Tip to Instapundit.

The Afghan government does not want to quickly release thousands of Taliban prisoners as the US committed Afghanistan to doing in the "peace" deal. I don't blame the Afghan government for not wanting to reinforce the enemy ahead of future talks.

I think this either/or framing is wrong. America can shape Western artificial intelligence. But tyrants will not just follow along with our AI standards any more than we will follow their lead.

It is amusing and frightening that wealthy people are backing Bernie Sanders and his communist class warfare promises. It's like those wealthy liberals are virtue signaling while counting on Bernie losing or being unable to deal with the wealthy elites as Bernie promises. Tip to Instapundit.

Hezbollah has only a few hundred troops left in Syria fighting for Assad on Iran's orders. But they are still taking casualties--this time from Turkish action--on top of the thousand-plus deaths they've endured since 2012.

I know, I know. We are all shocked that gambling is going on upstairs. This is why you don't fully trust what reporters say until verified by other more varied sources. Tip to Instapundit.