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Monday, March 16, 2020

Carrier Bait

The United States will keep two carriers in the Persian Gulf region in case Iran really acts up. As long as the "region" doesn't mean in the Persian Gulf itself, that's fine.

Okay, that's prudent:

The Pentagon said Friday it would keep two aircraft carrier task forces in the Gulf region after carrying out strikes in Iraq on five depots for Iran-supplied rockets.

Central Command chief General Kenneth McKenzie said the carrier groups would be staying for a sustained period following a series of attacks on US positions in Iraq by Iranian-backed groups that have ratcheted up tensions with Tehran. ...

"There are no access, basing and overflight issues associated with an aircraft carrier. It's a floating piece of American sovereignty," he said.

Cue the definitions section ASAP, because I think it is insane to put our carriers inside the Persian Gulf north of the Strait of Hormuz:

It is close to criminal stupidity for America to send aircraft carriers into the Persian Gulf. Especially with the growing tensions with Iran in Iraq.

The problem is that those carriers are floating pieces of American sovereignty, and setting one ablaze--even if it is just briefly without inflicting a critical hit as long as it is filmed--would be a powerful visual to bolster the mullahs (although one can't rule out that it would backfire if it scared the Hell out of Iranians fearful of provoking a war).

Don't rule out that Iran is baiting our carriers into the Gulf with their proxy attacks on our bases in Iraq in order to strike a big blow against our carriers. Don't think they aren't thinking of that:

I recently mentioned that Iran had built and attacked (while filming it) a mock-up of a Nimitz-class carrier. I guess the Iranians are hauling it out again to beat it with sticks. Or something. Perhaps the Iranians decided that if they are going to lie again about inflicting damage on the American military they want some plausible footage. But as I warned in that post, putting our carriers in the Persian Gulf is insane. On the bright side, perhaps hauling out that replica means the Iranians don't think we will be cooperative enough to provide a real target conveniently close by.

And don't think the Iranian mullahs don't have an incentive to roll the dice.

Can't we find other ways to retaliate inside Iraq without using our carrier air wings?

UPDATE: Sure, that's a nice signal to the Iranians, but I'd rather keep our big ships out of range:

A joint exercise launched March 8 and 9 in the Persian Gulf involving the Cyclone-class Monsoon and [Special Operations AC-130W Stinger II gunship with the Navy’s P-8A Poseidon recon plane] was designed to see how well a surface patrol ship and a long-range spy plane could select targets in the Persian Gulf for a Special Operations Command Central gunship to blast to bits.

The scenario envisioned the U.S. forces providing maritime security, such as during convoy operations, in contested waters.

I'm fine with the Cyclone-class ships and smaller types in there, supported by aircraft and land-based missiles (and better employed). Just keep the big ships (and the less robust LCS) out.