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Saturday, February 08, 2020

In for a Penny, In for a Pound?

Turkey has sent about a thousand vehicles and an unknown number of troops into Idlib recently, and has clashed with Syrian troops there:

The new push came as Turkey, a main backer of the opposition, sent more reinforcements into Idlib, according to the Observatory and Idlib-based media activist Taher al-Omar who is embedded with militants.

The Observatory said a convoy consisting of 430 vehicles entered Syria since Friday night, raising the number of vehicles that entered Syria since last weekend to well over 1,000.

A rare clash on Feb. 3, between Turkish troops and Syrian soldiers left seven Turkish soldiers and a Turkish civilian dead as well as 13 Syrian troops.

Turkey had too little inside Syria last year to stop Assad. The reported numbers recently sent don't seem nearly enough to halt the Russian-backed Assad offensive there.

Isn't it a bit late for Turkey to enforce their old ultimatum?

Or does Erdogan think Iran is too weakened by America's effort to resist Turkey? And does Erdogan think Russia is too weak and too eager to complete the sale of S-400s and perhaps aircraft to Turkey (in the hope of scoring a diplomatic coup of splitting Turkey away from NATO) to oppose Turkey as long as Turkey leaves Russia's Syrian bases alone?

If Turkey is willing to intervene in a more distant Libya, perhaps their willingness to fight in Syria is higher, eh?  Maybe there is no expiration date on the ultimatum.