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Saturday, January 11, 2020

Can Cyprus Replace Incirlik?

The Incirlik stand-in auditions for the lead role:

Cyprus said Wednesday it had accepted a US request to station a rapid response team on the island in case American diplomatic personnel or civilians need to be evacuated amid rising US-Iranian tensions.

Cyprus "gave its consent for the temporary stationing in Cyprus of a rapid response unit whose task will be to evacuate US diplomatic missions to the region, as well as US citizens, if necessary," said government spokesman Kyriacos Koushos.

If the Turks ever eject us from the Incirlik air base (or if we leave because Turkey stops being anything but a technical ally), Cyprus (the Greek part not occupied by Turkey) might fill in for the role. Especially if Turkey continues its push to dominate the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

UPDATE: One reason I speculate on this as that if Turkey becomes unrestrained by membership in NATO, Greece and the Greek portion of Cyprus might want friends on hand just in case:

Turkey and Greece, two of the Mediterranean’s greatest rivals, have long sparred over dominance of the region. The center of gravity of this competition has been Cyprus, an island split between its Greek and Turkish occupants. The island has immense geostrategic value, sitting at the crossing of the Eastern Mediterranean’s main sea lanes, regional energy markets and trade routes. Control of Cyprus would give a country access to the island’s valuable natural gas reserves and exploratory drilling rights, helping it project itself as the dominant Eastern Mediterranean power.

What does Sultan Erdogan want to risk in pursuit of imperial grandeur?

Although I don't know why the analysis says America's Sixth Fleet is one of the navies with a "commanding presence." It's a phantom fleet relying on transiting warships going to and from CENTCOM.