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Monday, November 04, 2019

The Sicilian Expedition

What on Earth is Putin doing in Africa? The man has gone mad, seemingly screaming for attention to prove Russia matters. But he only dissipates Russian strength when he should be husbanding it to resist China.

This is all sorts of stupid:

“For many years Putin has aspired to play a much bigger role in the international system,” Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, told Foreign Policy. In Sochi, the Russian leader and his associates were not shy about this, and they voluntarily expressed that the return to Africa was a hopeful step in their return to great-power status.

And sending a nuclear bomber to South Africa, as Russia did, doesn't make the effort more impressive.

What is the purpose of getting more involved in Africa? Will Russia bolster their national security in any way by increasing their influence there? How?

By selling big ticket weapons to bolster their arms industry? That isn't likely.

By selling small arms? That won't affect their arms sales much and will just revive the violence that raged when the USSR gave away arms to African states and groups.

By increasing their minuscule trade with Africa? What does Russia have other than oil and how much can African states buy that they aren't getting from elsewhere?

By diverting American or Chinese resources that would otherwise be directed at Russia? Only if the Russians are successful in their effort and only if Russia doesn't spend more resources than America and China have to spend in response. And in the case of America, only--and this is key--if America had any interest at all in targeting Russia. If Russia didn't threaten states on Russia's European borders, we wouldn't pay any attention at all to them.

Every ruble the Russians spend away from bolstering their defenses in Asia against a rising China with for-now dormant claims on huge tracts of Russian territory taken from China in the 19th century--and to defend Russian influence in territory they already lost--is a complete waste.

Honestly, it is hard not to conclude that the Fuck-Up Fairy lives in Russia year-round now.

Will nobody in Russia tell Putin he is effing up royally?