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Wednesday, August 07, 2019

A Desert Called Peace

Assad remains on the Sarin Throne of Syria. But what did he win other than avoiding hanging from his heels from a lamp post?

The overriding issue of that conflict -- whether Bashar al-Assad's government would continue to rule Syria -- has been settled. It will.

The intensity of the fighting has diminished, and the pace of military operations is lower. The war, however, is far from over.

Moreover, there are a range of secondary issues that were bound up with the civil war, which remain unresolved. The success of the Assad regime and its Russian and Iranian backers notwithstanding, the civil war is now largely stalemated, as are many of the secondary issues that were linked to it.

When Assad was the last man standing after the defeat of ISIL's caliphate and the collapse of western rebels, I questioned whether the war was over:

The multi-war may be over in the sense that the rebellion is unlikely to drive Assad from power absent a major collapse of the pro-Assad power structure. Which is conceivable once the prospect of rebel victory recedes.

So how does the war evolve going forward? I don't think the multi-war is over yet.

And I've wondered how the not-over war would evolve since then.

I especially wonder how long the Deconfliction Line (DCL) along the Euphrates River will last.

I also wonder why the world's conscience fixates on Yemen (UPDATE: With an assist by corrupt UN officials working with Houthi rebels to steal aid) where maybe 10% as many people have died (is it all about defending Iran against Trump?) when the real humanitarian crisis remains in Syria:

Close to half a million people in Syria have been displaced from their homes in the past three months, refugees in the making, who would have sought safety with their neighbours across the border if the doors hadn’t been shut in their faces.

Let that number sink in for a moment. Half a million rendered homeless, running for their lives. They fled rebel-held areas in the provinces of Idlib and Hama between April and July, trying to escape death at the hands of militias loyal to Bashar Al Assad or Russian fighter jets. ...

It is necessary to take stock of the carnage up until now, to illustrate what we have grown accustomed to – the level of violence that we now find acceptable.

Our enemies always get a pass on what they do to win--or to just sit on the throne a little longer.

UPDATE: Syria's slow offensive in Idlib continues:

Syrian government forces captured two northwestern villages in an intensified offensive on the last rebel-held part of the country, inching closer to the town of Kfar Zeita which has been held by insurgents since 2012, opposition activists and state media reported Wednesday.

Syria has few troops for attacking, and fears both casualties and the Turks. So the offensive is slow, relying on firepower.