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Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Watch Your Back, General Wei Fenghe

China claimed that they will fight America over Taiwan. The threat is no doubt intended to make America hesitate before intervening. But the boastful resolve is not fully true.

Well that's clear enough:

China’s defense minister [General Wei Fenghe] warned Sunday that its military will “resolutely take action” to defend Beijing’s claims over self-ruled Taiwan and disputed South China Sea waters. ...

"China must be and will be reunified. We find no excuse not to do so. If anyone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese military has no choice but to fight at all costs, at all costs, for national unity," Wei stressed.

China doesn't need to defeat America in order to conquer Taiwan. If the Chinese military advantage over Taiwan is high enough and if the time it takes for America to effectively intervene is long enough, China will capture Taiwan without having to fight America.

Of course, the general is wrong that China would fight for Taiwan "at all costs." That is a nationalistic position and not a Chinese Communist Party position that holds that no objective other than the maintenance of CCP control of China is worth fighting at all costs. Everything else is subordinate to that objective, and China will fight America or abandon Taiwan if it seems more likely to maintain CCP control in China.

And the timing to risk a confrontation with America over Taiwan may not be here despite the shiny new weapons that Wei has:

Xi may soon find that a perfect storm of agricultural problems, internal unhappiness, and his own chosen hard line on the trade war could undermine the domestic power he has worked so hard to consolidate.

If the Chinese military wants to fight America for Taiwan "at all costs" the Chinese Communist Party will have something to say about that.