Weekend Data Dump

One Congress cannot bind a future Congress' actions, but according to a judge one president can bind a future president if the first president issues an executive order intended to be permanent. Does the judge realize the kind of power she just granted Trump in her eagerness to defend Obama's legacy? Of course, it will be reversed. Unless Trump doesn't appeal and just pockets the new power. I don't know how that would work out. But it is a bad power to grant any president.

As President Trump seems to be gearing up for a reelection campaign I have to say my hunch that he'd decline to run for reelection in order to "leave on a high note" was wrong. And he could win all because Democrats couldn't pull off looking mostly sane at first glance.

Strategypage looks at the Littoral Combat Ship. It comes in two hull forms from two companies. It has promise if the flaws of the new designs can be worked out because the ships can be reconfigured for different missions with inserts. My problem with the class is the idea that it can operate close to shores and expect to survive. I think that issue is resolved. My other issue is that the ship needs those combat system inserts to be more than a weak surface combatant with enough open space to carry a company-sized ground unit or supplies, too. Work on the mission modules and the debugging of the new-class problems and it will be able to play a useful role even though it was designed for the post-Cold War era of power projection against weak powers lacking anti-ship weapons. Although it is no longer a cheap ship.

Resistance if futile. You will be absorbed into the Borg collective. 5G totalitarianism is a horror to behold in its expansive aims for control.

Wait a second, "Beto" O'Rourke spoke to an audience in his "native Spanish?" Did his cultural appropriation go so deep that a reporter doesn't notice Beto's a basic white guy (not that there's anything wrong with that, of course)?

We have halted the shipment of equipment to Turkey that will allow them to eventually get F-35s. We also say Turkey's role in the global supply chain can be replaced. Good. But remember that we don't have an S-400 problem--we have an Erdogan problem.

Fans of socialism in America have a sweet gig. When socialist states are shown to be an economic failure and/or police state sh*thole state like Venezuela, the USSR, Cuba, or North Korea, socialists say that particular failure didn't really implement socialism. And then the fans point to successful states like Sweden or Denmark and falsely claim they are socialist states. Face it, some people just like ordering other people about, and socialism is nothing if not that.

I won't say that Trump is responsible for strengthening NATO given that path was started under Obama in reaction to Russia's invasions of Ukraine. But I will say that Trump is certainly not wrecking NATO as the Germans like to say (to justify their failure to spend sufficient money on defense?)--and he is continuing to strengthen NATO's defenses--especially American power which weakened in regard to maintenance and ammunition stocks under Obama. And in the meantime, only the German government and Russia are happy with Germany's failure to maintain a military rather than a public works program with common dress codes. The Germans say they can't spend more because of World War II. But the Germans did have an effective military in the Cold War (both West Germany and East Germany, oddly enough) despite the same history being closer in time. And if that is their worry, I say bring out the clue bat one more time.

Hiftar (or Haftar) is gradually making the talks about a unity government moot. His forces are slowly expanding from their eastern base and just took Gharyan, 60 miles south of Tripoli in the west. But it's not all slow-motion shock and awe. And the militias that control Tripoli vow to fight. The recognized government seems to just control a narrow coastal strip in the west, so if Hiftar takes Tripoli, the formal capital, he might have the win.

"[On the Gaza border] Israeli troops found and destroyed several bombs demonstrators had thrown over the border fence during a recent demonstration." I know the authors know this, but in what sense do "demonstrators" throw bombs? This is an ongoing border assault with human shields.

You'd think that if global warming is a crisis that we'd start ramping up nuclear power before we insist on settling the question of how we should react to climate change. Nuclear energy can satisfy goals of both sides without settling the question of planetary doom, no?

For no particular reason to share this, but I always assumed that anonymous work surveys will always provide superiors with enough information to exactly figure out who said what.

Yeah, it sucks when you run afoul of your own rules.

I wonder how many times Fairfax took the test before he passed it.

There is no reason for America to denounce the Montreux Convention given that Turkey is the ultimate decider on access to the Black Sea based on physical control of the Turkish Straits. So Russian suggestions we could do this are likely just propaganda to drive the wedge in US-Erdogan relations deeper, in my opinion. Given NATO decisions to bolster its position around the Black Sea, this is perhaps expected. Although Turkey remains a shaky pillar of that NATO effort.

What are the odds that Iran didn't thoroughly scrub the warehouse in the large amount of time that passed between Israel's operation to pull information out of the nuclear program information storage site and the IAEA inspection? And for God's sake people, of course Iran abides by the horrible Iran nuclear deal! It is effectively toothless.

KATUSA's and how America's Army humanized the South Korean military.

Tora! Tora! Tora! Sorry, I couldn't resist.

China is apparently studying the naval battles for Guadalcanal. That's good. But I think a study of how the synergy of all the domain battles in that long World War II campaign provided America victory is a better focus--as I sketched in this AUSA Land Warfare Paper. But yeah, the point of being able to endure losses and win while maintaining logistics is important alone.

I don't think Biden has done anything that damning (while making clear I would not behave in such a manner). But I do take comfort that after decades of Republicans being horribly accused of "waging war on women," it is clear the Democrats had their own p***y-grabbing brigade in their own ranks of men. Enjoy the deserved purge.

Given the importance of holding the Suwalki Gap, a special agreement on defense cooperation with Lithuania on top of NATO membershipis a good idea.

As long as we are talking presidential obstruction.

I'm not comfortable with Afghanistan not being at the table for negotiations with the Taliban. It accepts Taliban claims that that the Afghan government isn't legitimate. How can be trust a deal with the Taliban to protect the Afghanistan government when the Taliban don't accept the Afghan government? Negotiating a "decent interval" between our departure and a Taliban victory is no way to discuss peace.

If robotic logistics vehicles can be misdirected by putting stickers on pavement, the leader-follower concept faces another vulnerability.

Just call them "high-capacity legal tender." There are people who will use this information to ban paper currency because "only criminals need it." Why does everything I buy need to be recorded by somebody?

More Russians too poor to buy new shoes.  I wonder what happens when the Russian people figure out Putin is at fault?

Effing Russians. 

Taiwan declared a rather specific red line against Chinese fighter planes crossing a long-observed line in the Taiwan Strait. Will Taiwan enforce that by shooting at Chinese fighters? Will China attempt to ambush a Taiwanese effort to enforce that line? In related news, the Chinese don't want Taiwan to be better able to enforce such a red line by buying new late-model F-16s from America.

If Britain doesn't exit the European Union despite lack of a deal, rule of law is dead in Britain and the European Union has learned that obstructing national democracy by refusing to negotiate in good faith is the best way to defeat democratic efforts to resist "ever closer union" until the proto-imperial project can shed the prefix.

If American military intervention to overthrow Maduro is on the table, watch the Atlantic Marine Expeditionary Force, the 82nd Airborne Division, related air and naval units, and SOUTHCOM for signs of more intense activity. While it would be morally right to overthrow Maduro, I'd rather not count on a quick victory. And I don't want to do it to save Brazil the job of leading an intervention of Latin American states, which Brazil's military is opposed to doing. I continue to think intervention is more likely for purely humanitarian reasons to enable the flow of aid. Although we should keep in mind how humanitarian missions can become combat missions--see Somalia from Bush 41 to Clinton. But given the sudden Democratic hatred of all things Russia, how could Democrats credibly oppose intervention given that Russia has sent actual troops to assist Maduro. Not many, mind you. But still, RUSSIANS.

Captain Obvious arrives in WDC to declare Iran's Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization. The story makes a point of saying that this is  "the first time Washington has formally labeled another country's military a terrorist group." But how many times have people friendly to Iran said we can't hold the government responsible for what the Revolutionary Guards do because they aren't fully under control of the government?

That's pretty cool.

The Army wants to help improve marksmanship by removing an alternate test that reduces the "drop" and wind problems for long-range targets. That's a good thing to do until the Army issues marksmanship to each soldier (membership required).

French weekend protests continue.

Russia remains corrupt. Which offers Ukraine hope of being strong enough to deter Russia if it can be more than a smaller version of corrupt Russia. And thanks to Joe Biden, Ukraine was held back from that rule-of-law path to security. And we aren't exactly setting an example of caring about rule of law in our dealings with Ukraine in this matter, either. What's up with that?

If the Arab Spring is re-blooming in Sudan, the Islamist dictator in question isn't planning to go quietly without trying to kill his way to victory, it seems.

The Saudis are expanding their diplomatic presence in Iraq. Good. It's about effing time. If the Saudis will finally bring Iraqi back into the Arab fold despite the Sunni-Shia divide, Iraqi prime minister visits to Iran will more and more take the form of "you guys had best back off, or else" agendas.

An American aircraft carrier visit to Vietnam is a nice peacetime symbol of support against Chinese territorial claims. But I still don't like dangling those ships too near threats in case we suddenly aren't in peacetime.

It is not being "worshipped." That said, I've never been keen on that relic "veneration" stuff. A nice statue should be sufficient.

Oh FFS, it wasn't a "doctored" video of Biden! It was an obvious spoof video mocking Biden. How many people just saw the biased headline?

A Venezuelan legislator says 20 tons of gold is being readied for loading on a Russian plane. If true, is this for Maduro's exile or is Maduro paying Russia to save his inept and cruel regime?

Well, our new helmet (ECH) certainly works. It's nice to see things made by the lowest bidder working.

Worst. Tyrant. Ever. But he tweets! It still boggles my mind that so many on the left sincerely believed the election of Trump would lead to a dictatorship here.

Huh.