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Thursday, April 18, 2019

The Problem With Turkey is Not the S-400 System

I really dislike the fact that our diplomatic problems with Turkey are being framed as a problem of Turkey choosing the Russian S-400 air defense system or the American F-35.

This is not a good way to look at the problem with our supposed ally Turkey:

Is Turkey’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system a done deal?

“Yes and no,” according to a member of a senior Turkish delegation visiting Washington this week, suggesting there was still room for negotiation, and Ankara was trying to find a way to avoid a collision course with Washington.

“Politically speaking, we believe we can find a way to address this without having a collision course on this issue,” the senior Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Monday. “Solving this would be the biggest part of a positive agenda.”

With Congress threatening sanctions if Turkey acquires the Russian air defense system, and the Pentagon and State Department warning that Turkey could lock itself out of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter aircraft program and will not receive the fighter jets if it doesn’t scrap the S-400 deal, Turkey is taking its case directly to President Donald Trump.

I hope Trump realizes that our problem with Turkey isn't that they want to buy the S-400 which would compromise the secrets of the F-35's capabilities:

Turkey under Caliph Erdogan has stopped being a NATO ally despite being a member of NATO. The Russian S-400 air defense system purchase by Turkey is just an identifiable symptom. ...

Our EUCOM commander thinks that Turkey should not get the F-35 if it buys the S-400. I don't think Turkey should get the plane even if it doesn't buy the S-400--unless we send Turkey stripped down "monkey versions" that are not networked and don't even have the best stealth features, sensors, and weapons. 

As I've said before on TDR, we should wall off Turkey from NATO information to protect NATO from Erdogan, while not expelling Turkey in the hope that Turkish friends of the West will one day regain dominance. ...

Honestly, I'm worried Erdogan will back down and buy the Patriot instead of S-400. We should not trust Erdogan with the F-35 even if Turkey rejects the S-400.

If we frame the issue as forcing Turkey to choose between the S-400 and the F-35, we could "resolve" the issue and simply leave us with Erdogan controlling F-35s.