I've noted much the same.
But this makes me wonder about the model that concludes the same thing (broadly speaking) that I did:
Indeed, forecasts of the Global Power Index, a measure developed in coordination with our own Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures and used in one of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends reports, suggest Chinese general capabilities will peak and immediately begin to decline near the year 2050 — just two decades after its material power surpasses the United States in approximately 2030. This decline is forecast to continue through the end of the century, and, while China is likely to remain the single-most powerful country during this time (with a forecasted 19.2 percent of the world’s power in 2100 relative to India’s 14 percent and the United States’ 13.2 percent), its material power is never forecast to exceed the likes of NATO (with a forecasted collective share of world power at 29 percent in 2100).
One, I'm not so sure China will be number one in relative power in 2100, as I noted in the first link. Heck, I'm not sure "China" will be a political term rather than a geographic term.
Butif the model also says that non-America NATO will have 15.8% of global power potential compared to America's share at 13.2%, I have to wonder if nuance and pacifism are expected to be the raw material of power as the 22nd century is about to begin.
