From the "Well, Duh" files:
Russia is positioned to quickly defeat forward-deployed U.S. and NATO forces and grab land before reinforcements could arrive, according to a new paper from the Atlantic Council, an international affairs think tank.
That is obviously true. We cannot win that initial battle.
And I think it is obviously true that putting enough troops forward to stop a Russian invasion of the Baltic states simply invites Russia to advance through Belarus to link up with Kaliningrad and isolate the NATO army in the Baltic states.
The key for NATO is to survive the initial Russian attack, mobilize, and counterattack.
And more NATO power in Poland is a reasonable step to take. I've gone back and forth on whether permanently stationed American armored brigades should be based in Poland. Lately I'm on the "no" side:
I think that America should put a division's worth of equipment in Poland; and permanently deploy air defenses plus improve the logistics capacity of Poland to accept NATO reinforcements from the west.
For now the rotational American armored brigade in Poland and NATO tripwire battlegroups are fine.
The next step should be American prepositioned unit sets in Poland. Which I've long wanted.
Then we could discuss actual units forward deployed in Poland.
