We shall see if we give Afghan soldiers, police, and civilian employees reason to survive the morale impact of our decision to leave:
The Taliban welcomed news of the U.S. plan to withdraw half its troops in Afghanistan by the summer, as Afghan generals warned it would be a blow to the morale of the country’s beleaguered security forces who come under daily attacks from the insurgent fighters.
These analysts see no good from pulling American troops out of Afghanistan:
More troubling to us than a so-called “endless war,” however, is an outright jihadist victory. And that’s what Trump’s withdrawal of the small American force in country all but guarantees.
I've argued the same thing repeatedly. We can choose where we fight the jihadis--there or here. We cannot choose to end the war while jihadis want to kill us.
Our allies will leave as we leave, have no doubt. Unless we have a real alternative to bolstering the Afghan forces on our side, this is really bad.
And because the local centers of authority aren't enabled to carry on the war against the jihadis (as I called for almost exactly a year ago), when the artificial central government collapses, who will pick up the fight?
Do we really think we can go back to the days of lobbing cruise missiles at jihadi targets every once in a while will do the job? Such ineffective use of force is what encourages jihadi recruitment.
So at the end of 2019 or some time in 2020 we will lose the effect of staying as long as we did to fight our relentless jihadi enemies in Afghanistan.
So the next time we have to fight jihadis, they can point to Afghanistan and with confidence say that they can outlast us. And after doing that to America and to the USSR, who will tell them that Allah isn't on their side?
Oh, and is assuming that the Afghans couldn't fall apart until after we withdraw a safe bet? We'd best update our broken arrow scenario there:
I've got a bad feeling about this, and I hope our plans (we do have such plans, I assume) to consolidate American and allied troops and civilians in Bagram air base where our air support can sustain them until they can be airlifted out are all up to date.
Otherwise it's roll to your rifle and blow out your brains time.
Have a super sparkly day.
UPDATE: Apparently the White House says it has issued no orders to draw down troop levels despite reports indicating half our few troops would leave.
