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Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Meanwhile in Afghanistan

The Pakistani-backed Taliban offensive to take Ghazni certainly flamed out after gaining a lot of publicity. Which worried me. Is the Afghan government quietly pushing back now?

In the east ( Ghazni province) Pakistan has been reinforcing the Afghan Taliban since August in a continuing effort to gain control of the province. Currently the Taliban have been trying to avoid the government counteroffensive. Unable to assemble large forces for another attack on the provincial capital the remaining Taliban are fighting to hold onto their rural bases. Earlier in the month Taliban forces sought to halt traffic on the main road to Kabul and destroy bridges. Some of those efforts succeeded but the Taliban were eventually forced away from the roads and bridges. Two months of fighting in Ghazni cost the Taliban about a thousand dead. This is exceptionally high for the Taliban and led to some embarrassing consequences for Pakistan. Among the hundreds of Taliban dead Afghan security forces were able to examine many foreigners (Pakistani, Central Asian and Chechen) were identified. Since the 1990s the Pakistani ISI has sent reinforcements recruited in Pakistan to the Afghan Taliban. Officially the Pakistani denies this happens but occasionally evidence becomes so visible that it is difficult to ignore, or deny with any assurance of being believed. [emphasis added]

I haven't read about any government counteroffensive until now.

And there is this:

Those [Taliban] casualties were result of unexpectedly prompt and effective resistance by Afghan security forces, armed locals and American air support in Ghazni province.

Given that at the time it did seem like the Taliban had suffered heavy losses, my main worry was that the Taliban would keep the initiative and that the Afghan security forces would hunker down in the cities and large bases, surrendering the countryside to the Taliban.

If the government forces are following up the failed Taliban offensive with an effort to exploit enemy losses, the Taliban may yet get knocked back on their heels and make the Pakistani effort fail.

And one last thing. Even if Afghanistan is still a geographic term rather than a real political entity, Afghans are getting used to the idea that voting is how you should choose leaders. So there's that.