Weekend Data Dump

Mercenaries are a feature of modern warfare and what can Russia say if their mercenaries in the Donbas are killed at a high rate? You can purchase my collected thoughts on private warfare here. And I've certainly advised sending body bags back to Russia to reduce the appeal of their Ukraine adventure.

Paranoia and the grain of truth behind it.

In the Soviet Union, it was standard practice to treat disagreement with socialism as a mental illness.

God help us, but we entrusted these people with our national security.

Instead of being more flexible for the Russians, we are reinforcing our military in Europe to counter Russia. It's a bit much for former president Obama to now claim that he answered that call from the 1980s.

I'm not sure what to make of this claim about human impact on the climate and preventing an ice age. It makes sense at some level, since I've long read that our current inter-glacial period has been rather long, but it relies on models. And I've also read that humanity didn't really have an impact on the climate until 1950. Although having an impact for so long might have disguised the impact as just the baseline of the climate. Also, it discusses orbital mechanics that heat and cool the Earth, which so often seems to be ignored. It is an interesting article. But maybe there is another explanation: Could the reason be some natural cause?

Erdogan has crippled Turkey's economy and alienated traditional allies by turning Turkey into an Islamist autocracy under him. This otherwise good article about the bad financial crisis in Turkey is weakened by a ritual slap at Trump, with the author saying Erdogan's "angry feud with President Donald Trump ... is pushing [Turkey] towards financial crisis." It is not some 3:00 a.m. Twitter-based "angry feud." It is a major foreign policy problem based on what Ergodan has been consistently doing to the once secular Turkey that was a reliable NATO ally. This is not about Trump. This is about Erdogan. Trump Derangement Syndrome shouldn't be allowed to obscure that basic truth.

The German 10-year plan to restore military capabilities won't even meet the NATO 2024 commitment for  spending; and it seems highly unlikely that the Germans will fund even this plan. I assume this will be a thousand year-plan to reach the 2024 goal.

Putin's sword. 

Is China following the path to downfall of the Soviet Union despite thinking the Chinese learned the lessons of the collapse of the Soviet Union? I've thought that China's economy has more depth than the USSR's and so that would make a difference. But perhaps it isn't sufficiently better to provide a different outcome. The author is not impressed with the New Silk Road initiative (a.k.a. OBOR, BRI).

Naval mines are a horribly unappreciated threat to us and opportunity for us offensively. I've mentioned this repeatedly over the years.

Okay, I really want to comment on the anonymous New York Times op-ed by a White House official who claims to be saving the country from Trump's worst instincts.  But on the issue of governance and not on politics. Other than the display of ego in the age of The Resistance, this is the normal stuff of a president sitting atop a massive White House and executive branch staff and bureaucracy. Presidential options--with rare exceptions of intense presidential interest--get pushed toward remaining within the parameters of what the staff and bureaucracy consider possible and wise. That's why I didn't panic over Trump or Obama despite their inadequacies in background to govern. I won't elevate this behavior into a "Deep State" issue. It's just how the system works, as long as you also understand that the civilian bureaucracy is far more friendly to Democrats than to Republicans. And the military leadership is the reverse. On a related issue, I suspect that 80% of the "chaos" in the White House that is alleged today is because of the level of scrutiny and the media judgment that this is unusual. Recall that when the media is friendly to the president, having competing centers of power in the president's cabinet is lovingly called "a team of rivals" recalling Abe Lincoln's cabinet. Also, what the official did is not treason. But I'd probably fire the official.

I find it interesting that the Chinese believe their vast investments in countries as part of their New Silk Road (BRI) project will convince them to reduce their resistance to Chinese territorial claims against them by rejecting a "zero sum" mentality. Because I've expressed a hope that China will learn to appreciate that their economic rise has been enabled by the American-built post-World War II system and so reduce Chinese desire to reject and revise that system. The Chinese might want to consider their own view of the American-designed system when they judge whether countries with territorial disputes with China will just accept Chinese claims if those other countries gain economic benefits from the BRI.

Science!

In this last week we had the anniversary of the Battle of Lake Erie, which took place September 10, 1813. I only mention it because the first thing I wrote for publication as a real writer was a brief biography of the commander Oliver Hazard Perry, in the Historic World Leaders publication.

Russia has been testing an unusual satellite "carrier" which may be an anti-satellite weapon designed to kill without debris or take over satellites. That and satellites in general over at Strategypage. It's time to move the X-37 spacecraft forward and remove the X to get something in production. And wow, it has been a while since I mentioned it. Time flies.

The aging world. A long time ago I figured that America would react to declining birth rates with immigration (with robots as a productivity product rather than a people replacement issue); Japan would react with robotics; and Europe would react with cloning (and again, robots would be a productivity issue). As Europe's experiment with immigration falters, my old completely speculative view might pan out. China might be a robot response candidate. The Stratfor article expresses confidence that Japan can adapt given its talent and wealth.

Well that's just effing amazing. Actual science is amazing. Although I assume the range is short. So it might be more practical (if that's the right word) for hands-free piloting with wingmen drones close by. If it can be done at longer ranges, could you have telepathically controlled remote weapons stations that enhances my notion reliant on wireless links?

Jesus Christ you moron, "the truth" is the least of the casualties of Assad's war on the Syrian people. Or have there been 400,000 funerals for various truths killed and millions more driven abroad? A journalist amazingly makes that blood-soaked war all about journalism. I guess when the only tool you have is a pen, every problem is an untold story. The myopia is astounding.

Hmm. How ... French ... of Kuwait.  I won't panic about bet hedging but it is something to watch.

When you like your society, you have reason to want to keep your society. And it is justified to wonder if mass migration of people who may not be able to assimilate into your society threaten to change your society. When Islamists who hate our society struck America in force on September 11, 2001, too many people here responded by asking "why do they hate us?" as if America did something to deserve that mass murder. But after the recent election in Sweden that challenges the status quo nobody in Sweden will ask "why do they distrust us?" (With "they" being those voters and "us" being the unassimilated immigrants friendly to Islamism and the government and media that refuses to face concerns over that migration policy's effect on Swedish society.)

Withdrawing American dependents from South Korea is a serious step, and it was discussed in the media last December.

I'm so old I remember when a foreign hostile power funneled money into the DNC and a presidential candidate's coffers and the media couldn't care less. I know, that's different because ... shut up. Tip to Instapundit.

Yes, the swastika that the Finnish air forces uses predates Nazi Germany. But honest to God it has been tainted too much and if Finns want NATO public opinion to be reflexively positive toward Finland if Russia attacks them, it really should be shelved.

China doesn't only persecute Moslems--Christians get abused too.

The Army hopes to power drones up to 500m up with lasers, allowing them to stay up indefinitely (as long as a line of sight is maintained, of course. I guess smoke screens will be important again).

Russia is conducting large-scale military maneuvers in Russian military regions close to China, yet people seem to be going out of their way to bizarrely claim the maneuvers are directed against America?

Don't over-analyze this. Russia is conducting large exercises to see just how bad it is out east in case China decides to attack Russia. If Russia is "sending a message to America," the message is "Help me!"

Paul Blart: Snake Eater.

Of course he would. He's a recognized moron. And on his own terms, a climate war criminal.

Good. We should stiff-arm the ICC. We are a free democracy that will police our own if somebody does something wrong. But the ICC would rather pick on anybody other than true monsters who might track them down and kill the judges, their staff, and their families.

I still suspect this was the result of an eavesdropping device and not an attack on our diplomatic personnel. Interesting that Russia is the leading suspect. Although I can't rule out mass hysteria combined with a small number of unrelated real ailments.

Lots of oil + lots of socialism = everyone's a millionaire! But there's a catch. There's always a catch. But nobody ever learns, believing that if only "true" socialism was done the right way, it would be great. If only some people could get together and try to create it in one nation (tip to Instapundit), it would be fine. Seriously, any system that requires such a high amount of intelligence and skill to avoid the mistakes of every other failed dictatorial socialist shithole that has emerged with hope and praise from gullible Westerners should be abandoned by anyone with a functioning brain stem. Alas, that is not so.

We will have the ability to sanction any foreign actor trying to interfere in our election.

I obviously cannot comment on the sudden FBI shutdown of the Dunn Solar Telescope in New Mexico. Not if I know what's good for me. I'll guess it is about countering foreign signals intelligence in some way. Either that or aliens.

A rose by just that name, apparently. Passing the referendum clears the path for NATO membership. The whole Macedonia name issue is a farce with real world repercussions.

Lighten up, Francis. We're allies. The disagreements on terms of trade will be settled peacefully.

A Strategypage tour of China, including the military modernization versus economic/corruption problems race; Iran; Dystopian State 2.0 Beta Version in Xinjiang and the silence of the Easily Offended; North Korea; Venezuela, and the Philippines. There's a lot. Read it all.

Thwart Iran by saving Idlib? "Saving" Idlib--the last rebel bastion in Syria--from the looming Assad ground invasion involves saving a lot of jihadis as collateral damage to thwarting Iran in a very minor way. There are plenty of other places and ways to thwart Iran. That there are fewer places to do that inside Syria now is because of America's failure since 2012 to make the overthrow of Assad an objective (which I believed was the fourth step in the anti-ISIL plan I outlined that we broadly followed in the years since that post).

A Rose by any other government? Russia tried to destroy Georgia in 2008 but failed. Will Russia succeed anyway with Georgians barely willing to admit that Russia tried to destroy Georgia in 2008? The revisionism to undermine what was obvious in 2008 is underway.

The Air Force is not considering a new F-15 or a F-22/F-35 hybrid.  The Air Force may be right about those ideas. They'd also better be right that the F-35--which is basically the only game in town for the future Air Force as older planes drop out of the force pool--will work as advertised.

When Russian efforts to keep their Ukraine vassal state reached the White House.

The healing powers of "and" suggests Iran has both instigated attacks on American interests in Iraq through their proxies and suffered from attacks by Iraqi Shias who reject Iranian influence in Iraq. Sanctioning Iranian hand puppets in Iraq is an excellent idea.

China won't get a foothold in Greenland after all. 

Trump would have to be a complete fool to fire Secretary of Defense Mattis. I remain grateful Trump defeated Hillary, but that doesn't mean I gave him a blank check.