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Monday, December 04, 2017

Mission Not Accomplished

This is odd for a war that Iran, Russia, and Assad claim is already won:

Jets believed to be Syrian and Russian struck heavily crowded residential areas in a besieged rebel enclave near Damascus, killing at least 27 people and injuring dozens in the third week of a stepped-up assault, residents, aid workers and a war monitor said on Monday.

The war is "won" but rebels still hold enclaves near Damascus despite a weeks-old stepped up assault.

Rebels hold a lot of other areas in the west notwithstanding the defeat of ISIL's territorial state in the east.

And in the east, Kurds and Arabs hold a lot of territory outside of the control of Assad.

Assad is more secure based on the American-led defeat of ISIL.

But the war isn't won--as in over--despite the loud proclamations of Assad's team unless the rebels and foreign backers go along with that so-far fiction (or fake news or just old-fashioned propaganda, I suppose).

If rebels can and will continue to resist, can Assad's base of support continue to support the death and cost of continuing to wage war to defend Assad when the bogey man of ISIL is no longer there to be held over his supporters' heads to back any level of sacrifice needed to keep the Assad clan in its privileged position?

UPDATE: This offensive is hardly a sign the war is over:

In recent weeks, drawing relatively little international press coverage, forces of the Syrian regime of President Bashar Assad have pounded the area with airstrikes — including cluster bombs — as part of a ferocious assault on eastern Ghouta, just 12 miles from the country’s capital.

But if the rebels remain passive and let Assad mass force against each enclave in turn, Assad will win this war.

UPDATE: Seriously, no:

Russia's military said on Thursday it had accomplished its mission of defeating Islamic State in Syria, and there were no remaining settlements there under the group's control.

America defeated ISIL in Syria.  Russia simply announced occasional strikes and press releases that claimed half a gigillion ISIL casualties per strike so the year-end report's statistics get padded.

Russia did manage to exploit the American victory. So kudos for that although I regret we arranged the war this way.

But at least they aren't claiming they won the entire multi-war, which will go on if rebels have the will (or fear) to fight on and as long as foreign sponsors arm and support them.