The Saudi goal to check and roll back Iranian influence is all the more significant because of Israel:
And all this while Israel was conducting its biggest-ever aerial military drill, just a month after its largest-ever land military drill — both simulating war with Hezbollah.
So two months after his 32nd birthday, the Crown Prince has established himself as a despot, albeit one hailed by the West as an enlightened visionary. He has tightened a military alliance with Israel, all but declared war on Iran and prepared Lebanon as the first scene of this war — with Hezbollah as the first target.
Saudi Arabia is having problems in Yemen, given the problem of settling chaotic Iran which gains from the near-natural state of chaos that is easy to achieve:
More than two years into a war that has already left 10,000 dead, regional power Saudi Arabia is struggling to pull together an effective local military force to defeat the Iranian-aligned Houthi movement that has seized large parts of Yemen.
The Saudis checked the Iranian effort, but finally defeating the pro-Iran elements has been difficult relying on locals who seem to thrive on chaos and expect it.
That's unfair, I know; but is why I don't follow the fighting in Yemen that much. There is chaos, fighting, and talks--which seems to be a repeating pattern.
But Saudi Arabia can't get help for Yemen. Egypt is an ally but is unwilling to fight in Yemen to the degree needed--having experienced the chaos half a century ago.
Yet Egypt is no fan of Hezbollah given the Hamas-Hezbollah axis and the support jihadis in the Sinai get from the Hamas-run Gaza entity.
So delivering a decisive blow against Iran in Yemen is not going to happen. Yet Egypt would provide diplomatic support to a Saudi strike against Iranian influence.
In Syria, the defeat of ISIL without the building up of other rebels to replace them means that the Syria front is not a place to seek victory for now.
And while the Saudis are finally working with Iraq in an effort to reduce Iranian influence, direct action is not possible, or even identifiable.
Nor is a Saudi direct attack on Iran likely to do any good despite the ability displayed in Yemen to wage an aerial war.
But in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia could have an ally to wage war--Israel--and a major diplomatic ally with Egypt to mute Arab hostile reaction to an attack on Hezbollah. The purges remove the ability of opponents of Prince Salman to rally foes around anti-Israeli sentiment. For a while anyway.
I've long said that the best moment for Israel to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon is when the Syria war ends and so Hezbollah has experienced maximum casualties there but has yet to deploy back to Lebanon.
Well, Syria declared victory:
Syria's army declared victory over Islamic State on Thursday, saying its capture of the jihadists' last town in the country marked the collapse of their project in the region.
So look for Israel to launch a high-speed mechanized/airborne drive to Baalbek and erase the stain of the 2006 failure against Hezbollah while denying Hezbollah the respite they need to rebuild and renew the war at Hezbollah's time and place.
Hezbollah may loudly proclaim that they are eager for war with Israel, their main enemy, after their long bleeding in Syria for Assad and Iran; but they are just beating their chests and flinging poo.
Israel is not frightened by that display. And even before the Saudi angle emerged, I figured this would be the next war in the Middle East.
And if Israel wants to strike before Hezbollah can return home and reset to face Israel (and have the chance to kill via air attacks Hezbollah troops racing home), the invasion would have to be very soon.
NOTE: This was a scheduled post for later in the day, but given Saudi Arabia's warning for its citizens to leave Lebanon, I think I'll advance this.
UPDATE: A story in English on the evacuation request.
UPDATE: French President Macron made an unscheduled stop in Saudi Arabia:
French President Emmanuel Macron held hastily scheduled talks in Riyadh on Thursday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman amid rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, notably over Lebanon and Yemen.
France is the former colonial power in Lebanon and Syria.
One indication of a pending invasion might be the movement of Western naval forces capable of evacuating their nationals from Lebanon to nearby waters.
UPDATE: Fear of Iran is moving Saudi policy.
