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Saturday, October 07, 2017

The Next Middle East War

Hezbollah seems genuinely worried that Israel will attack them in force:

Lebanon’s Hezbollah accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government on Sunday of pushing the region to war in Syria, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, and said nowhere in Israel would be safe if such a conflict were to erupt.

While I don't agree with how Hezbollah frames this, I suspect they may be right.

Hezbollah wants to attack Israel but the Syria campaign is bleeding and distracting Hezbollah.

So of course Israel is correct in thinking that it would be a good idea to hammer Hezbollah in Lebanon with a major land invasion driving deep into Hezbollah's rear area before the terrorist group resets in Lebanon after withdrawing from Syria.

And the initial article reinforces my view of the scale of a potential Israeli offensive:

Israel has said it would use all its strength from the start in any new war with Hezbollah.

A lot of Hezbollah's rhetoric sounds like chest beating and flinging poo to deter Israel with words in the absence of real capabilities to stop a serious Israeli invasion. Hezbollah desperately wants Israel to hold their fire until Hezbollah can redeploy back to Lebanon to regroup and rearm.

Or will Israel be happy to have a false peace in the north until Hezbollah can initiate a war when it suits them.