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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

The Limits of Expertise

I will concede that the man profiled in this article has forgotten more about North Korea than I will likely ever learn. But that doesn't mean he knows what to do about North Korea.

Are these really viable paths to resolve the North Korea situation?

Bennett has another idea, a nonmilitary option to convince Kim that the costs of his provocations outweigh any benefits: Let him know that the next time he tests a nuclear weapon, the United States will drop thousands of leaflets on his nuclear facilities, offering money and a good life to anyone who defects. Even one defection would damage Kim's credibility at home, weaken his claim to power—and expose whatever nuclear secrets he has. That would hit him where it hurts.

And if that doesn't work? Bennett would send another message to Kim: “Oh, by the way, we know that at 2:30 in the afternoon on the day you did your nuclear test, you were exactly here.”

There is no way that leaflets dropped on scientists would work.

Any family member of scientists or technicians wouldn't have a Bond villain bomb collar worn 24/7, but it would be close enough.

And if anybody even picked up one of the leaflets, the person or a member of their family would be killed or in a death camp by morning.

If we started doing that, before long Kim's air force would drop leaflets to see who picked them up. I recall Saddam coup-proofing himself by staging fake coups and taking care of any officer who answered the middle of the night question, "Brother, are you with us?" the wrong way.

There is no way that idea could work. Zero.

As for targeting Kim himself? If we can do that, just do it (ignoring the illegality of that). Otherwise, once forewarned only stand-ins for Kim will be at the site at the time of the test in question. The North Koreans Photoshop missile launches, why wouldn't they pretend that Kim is at an actual launch or explosion with faked pictures?

He is absolutely right that reacting to North Korea has gotten us to this point of danger. Somehow we need to get the initiative.

Subject matter expertise does not make you an expert on what to do. But we too often think that is the case.