This is what Israel thinks:
Israel’s defense minister said on Tuesday President Bashar al-Assad was winning Syria’s civil war and urged the United States to weigh in as Damascus’s Iranian and Hezbollah allies gain ground.
Avigdor Lieberman’s comments marked a reversal for Israel, where top officials had from the outset of fighting in 2011 until mid-2015 regularly predicted Assad would lose control of his country and be toppled.
The Israelis might be right. But that doesn't mean the fighting is over. And Israel could be wrong.
But if Israel believes the Syrian multi-war is essentially over, Israel's enemy Hezbollah has endured maximum damage inside Syria supporting Assad but is not yet redeployed back to Lebanon to face Israel.
So this is the time for Israel to strike Hezbollah before Hezbollah can get ready to strike Israel again:
My view has been that Israel could inflict maximum damage to Hezbollah by hitting them at the moment Hezbollah decides to draw down their expeditionary force in Syria fighting for Assad. Why interrupt Sunnis killing Hezbollah fighters (2,000 KIA so far)?
And my view has been that Israel has learned the lesson of screwing the pooch in 2006 and will launch a ground drive (supported by air and naval forces, of course) that goes all the way to the Bekaa Valley to truly tear up Hezbollah infrastructure and kill their fighters and rear echelon types in large numbers.
Is Israel geared up to launch such a campaign?
The next Middle East war is likely in Lebanon, I think.
UPDATE: More on Syria, including the updated casualty figures for Hezbollah: 1,500 killed in action in Syria so far. That's a lot for such a small organization.
