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Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Testing the Working Assumptions

Israel is setting up a group to think about striking Iran's nuclear facilities.

I would have thought that this problem would be updated on a weekly basis. So why this is news right now is not clear.

While this news could simply be a signal by Israel to America and Iran that only a real nuclear deal (and not a pretend deal) will satisfy Israeli fears, to be an effective signal it needs to be a real military option:

The Hebrew-language Walla! reported Tuesday that it has learned from a foreign source that IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot has appointed Deputy Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Yair Golan to head a special team tasked with examining the military options against Iran.

The team would explore what kind of striking options are available to Israel after a deal with Iran is signed.

The story also notes that in May, Israeli planes exercised in Greek air space to simulate an Iran strike. I'm pretty sure Israel has done that before, but I can't find a post that I was sure I wrote on it.

I think Israel could work around the problems the experts say cripple an Israeli attack option, especially if Israel thinks outside the box.

Also, Iran's counter-attack options are limited given that Israel can still hold further damage to Iran over the mullahs' heads.

The biggest potential problem is if Iran also thought outside the box to protect their future nuclear arsenal.

UPDATE: More and more, it strikes me that a good attack option for Israel would be to modify some Saudi F-15s for strike missions and have these planes with Israeli pilots flying from Saudi airfields launch the initial wave.

Other F-15s operating from Saudi bases would escort in fighter role.

The second wave could launch from Israel.

The first wave could land and rearm for a third wave.

If Israel-Saudi Arabia worries about Iran are high enough, of course.

UPDATE: Well, Iranians put them together:

Tens of thousands marched in Tehran and Baghdad Friday in annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day demonstrations in support of Palestinians, but Saudi Arabia this year joined arch-foe Israel as the target for protesters.

So who knows?