Dumb Diplomacy

One of the reasons I worry about a loss of reputation abroad is that one day a foe will make a demand that they expect us to accept. But because we are aware of our loss of reputation, we will actually be more willing to go to the brink of war to restore our reputation. Unwilling to face down Assad or Iran, we may find ourselves at war with China. That's the opposite of smart diplomacy.

We are warning China not to think of Russia's grab of Crimea as a template they can get away with:

"The net effect is to put more pressure on China to demonstrate that it remains committed to the peaceful resolution of the problems," Russel, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Russel said the retaliatory sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States, the European Union and others should have a "chilling effect on anyone in China who might contemplate the Crimea annexation as a model."

The mere fact that Russia now controls Crimea is not relevant, apparently.

And China sees no connection between Crimea and China's perfectly justified (in their view) claims on territory in the South China Sea and East China Sea. Apples and oranges.

But the basic problem is that I believe President Obama would fight if pressed too hard; yet our warnings that we will resist the next aggression are not credible.

Let's hope Iran and not China is the first country to test our resolve and be surprised that we will fight.