I seriously doubt that Russia is making a play for real influence in Egypt that replaces America as Egypt's main ally. But it is a signal to us:
Citing Russian defense ministry sources, the Moscow business daily Vedomosti reported that nearly $3 billion in arms contracts have been signed, including deals for MiG-29M fighter planes, advanced air defense systems, Mi-35 helicopters, coastal anti-shipping missiles, and small arms. The paper also quotes sources as saying the tab for Egypt's Russian arms will be picked up by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Egypt needs weapons and is happy to get free stuff from Russia as long as Russia is selling and as long as we are signaling our displeasure with events in Egypt.
Russia is happy to sell weapons for cash. Moscow isn't likely to give them away. But Russia is happy enough to focus on Syria where Moscow can have a base in the eastern Mediterranean. If we're giving away the Middle East, I doubt Russia is buying. The Russians hardly need the expense and headache of cultivating another ally in that region. And sticking it to America a bit is fun, of course.
The Saudis and UAE are surely sending a signal to us that they are unhappy with American level of support over Iran and Syria. But they aren't about to pay for a full flip of Egypt; and they don't have an interest in sending Egypt into Russia's arms even if Russia was interested.
Egypt has no interest in flipping, given that they are still switching to US weapons after their Soviet period. I don't think Egypt wants to break relations with us and put their US-made arsenal at risk of rotting away without US support and spare part sales. But getting our attention is a good idea, they think.
Unless China wants to pay for and embark on a massive arms shipment to Egypt in order to get a major bridgehead in the Middle East (and have their hand on the Suez Canal which is so important for our naval deployments and air flights to the Persian Gulf), Egypt would rather just get us to be a more reliable arms supplier.
Of course, if signals sent are not read, after a while the things that seem unlikely now will get more likely. I assume the leadership vacuum will end when the Obama era mercifully ends. So the perceived need for Russian (or Chinese) power will fade.
UPDATE: More.
