Can China's communist rulers control the pre-Communist nationalism they've unleashed?
China's rulers abandoned Communism as a motivator of people's loyalty in order to unleash their economy. That economic freedom has worked (although it may have reached its limits under the current system), but the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) never abandoned the part of communism that says the party is in charge.
So to replace the loyalty generating feature of communism (you are nothing without your party), the party unleashed nationalism with the party standing as the guardian of the Chinese people and nation.
As China's rulers multiply their territorial ambitions and confront neighbors and America over those claims, China's people cheer the Chinese Communist Party on:
“You are nothing without your motherland.” It’s a trite phrase, one that seems unlikely to stir the blood of even the most dyed-in-the-wool nationalist — but it has found recent currency in China. An essay with that title has been making the rounds on the Chinese Internet since mid-November; it then went viral in early December, with state media giving the rant widespread play. The spike in attention occurred just before a visit from U.S. Vice President Joe Biden at a moment of rising tensions between China and the United States; and the timing may not be an accident.
In theory, China's rulers believe they can control this nationalism, turning it on when they need to pressure foreigners; and turning it off when it comes time to make a deal.
But the time will come when that unleashed nationalism will control the party. A time will come when nationalism demands that China "do something" about those plotting and evil foreigners.
And if China's party won't do something, perhaps someone in the military will step up and order a military response for the sake of the motherland. It is unclear what the Chinese military sees as its role these days, no?
So one day, China's communist rulers will decide that in order to maintain power, they will risk a war that whey may even think they'll lose.
Remember, too, that any crisis from Tibet to the Senkakus is a part of a continuum of threats to the Chinese Communist Party. China might start a war in response to revolt in the west in order to rally the people around the party as it defends the motherland.
And the CCP might even think they'd win. They might have to believe that to have hope they can continue to ride the wild tiger they unleashed.
