This author rightly calls for a pivot to the Arctic. But his call for downplaying military might to back our diplomacy stinks on ice:
Given the composition of the Arctic community, Russia will likely be forced to behave more agreeably and constructively or risk becoming a bystander or rogue actor. But good behavior on the part of the Russians is not a given and hedging is similarly advisable.
Because so many Arctic-bordering nations are democracies and allies, Russia wouldn't dare cause a stink! Somehow, the thought of being thought of as the skunk at the garden party will suddenly make Russia a peace loving cooperative country! And this despite the author's recognition of Russia's default position on everything else:
Present Russian leadership is inclined to maneuver against the United States when and where possible. This includes aligning with China (and others) opportunistically in the Asia-Pacific. The “China Card”, once the trump card in the American hand, may become Russia’s play for the near future. As observed in Iran and Syria, Russia can and will undermine American priorities.
Ya think?
Yet the author dismisses Russia's planting of their flag on the sea bed in the Arctic Circle as mere theatrics. But this is not so. Russia isn't interested in negotiating with the democracies of the Arctic Council. No, Russia planted their flag because they claim most of the Arctic region as their national territory. Let me repeat a quote from that post:
Russia has pitted itself against Canada, Denmark, Norway and the United States to fight for a greater part of the region, arguing that most of it is Russian territory since an underwater ridge links Siberia to the North Pole's seabed.
That's why the Russians planted their flag. Where's the room for compromise with a starting position like that?
But the author's idea of pivoting excludes minor things like paying attention to military balances and economic issues:
Preparing for the rise of Asia-Pacific is justified, but America’s diplomatic and military approaches have been diminished by a lack of coherence. The annual Strategic and Economic Dialogue with China has been vested with the priority and prestige a summit between the world’s two largest economies deserves, while the clandestine development of AirSea Battle has only fueled suspicions.
In 2015, the United States will become chair of the Arctic Council and inherit a rare chance to ensure the world’s next great opening is marred by neither mercantilism nor militarism. If the United States is genuinely interested in reconstituting itself after a decade of war and resetting relations with Russia, then comprehensively preparing for the opening of the Arctic would be prudent. If America’s preparation is limited to devising AirPolar Battle, then a major opportunity will have been wasted.
What's left if mercantilism and military balances are out of bounds? Vying for the right to be the saviors of the polar bears? Permanent Winter Olympics hosting duties? Face it, the region is already marred.
And what's with the notion that AirSea Battle is in "clandestine" development? I count 651,000 results at the point of writing this.
And the reason for AirSea Battle is clear--Chinese efforts to keep us from approaching too close to China--which just happens to place many of our allies effectively behind China's security perimeter.
I think we should pivot to the Arctic. In many ways it is a natural way to make NATO relevant since many Arctic nations are in NATO; and by pivoting the alliance's focus 90 degrees north, we simply emphasize the "North" in NATO, while having the mechanisms of a great alliance in place to act in this new area of focus.
And yes, fighting in Arctic conditions actually does require special equipment and training.
But if our military pivot to Asia and the Pacific is already over (and it could be if the whole point of the pivot was to provide cover for a pivot away from the Middle East), why not pay more attention to a region that will witness more competition?
Yet the notion that we can pivot to the Arctic without thinking about economic issues (just why are other nations interested in the region if not for natural resources and transportation routes?) or military issues (Russia is already pivoting north and even Canada recognizes that diplomatic clout in the region depends on having military resources to back claims in the Arctic) will just give Russia more room to practice their brand of power politics.
That's the kind of "reset" that Russia can work with. Why we should pivot to the Arctic just to surrender our interests in it is beyond me.
UPDATE: Yeah, Russia wants to move beyond economic interests and squashing foes with the power of the state:
Russia shrugged off Dutch legal action over its detention and prosecution of Greenpeace activists for piracy, saying on Saturday the group's protest at an Arctic oil platform had been "pure provocation".
The Netherlands launched legal proceedings against Russia on Friday, saying it had unlawfully detained activists and others on the Dutch-registered ship last month as it protested against drilling in the Arctic.
Two Dutch citizens were among 30 people on board the Arctic Sunrise, which was seized by Russian authorities near the Prirazlomnaya offshore oil platform.
The Russians are just oozing with agreeable behavior when dealing with a democracy's concerns, no?
UPDATE: Will the horrors of mercantile interests never cease?
Iceland is sitting pretty for what will likely be the world’s next oil boom. The USGS estimates that the Arctic circle holds roughly 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil, and as the world warms, that ice is melting, uncovering billions of barrels of black gold. Countries are licking their lips at the possibility of tapping these reserves, and tiny Iceland is well-positioned to take advantage. The North Atlantic Current keeps the country’s harbors ice-free, making it an ideal jumping-off point for countries like China who are eager to invest in new oil plays. And, as the New York Times reports, Iceland is working towards developing some of this Arctic oil for itself[.]
Fancy that.
